The only uncertainty concerns the exit strategy, but Red Bull has already decided to end its relationship with Sergio Perez. The announcement may come immediately after the Abu Dhabi weekend, once the separation terms are finalized. Lawson’s promotion to the main team will then be formalized, with the New Zealander narrowly beating Yuki Tsunoda for the spot.
Red Bull has a history of sudden driver changes and last-minute decisions, as seen once again here. For a top team, it is unusual to finalize a driver lineup in mid-December, as happened four years ago when Sergio Perez was signed.
Since Red Bull secured the phenomenon that is Max Verstappen, they have struggled to find a suitable teammate. This saga began at the start of the 2019 season after Daniel Ricciardo’s departure. That year, Pierre Gasly started the season after a solid full year at Toro Rosso but was dropped unceremoniously after 12 races, replaced by Alexander Albon, who had just debuted in Formula 1 with Toro Rosso earlier that year.
The following season, Albon also faced the axe after scoring only half of Verstappen’s points. This led to Red Bull’s historic decision to select a teammate for Max from outside their junior program: Sergio Perez, fresh off a historic win with Racing Point at the Shakir circuit.
Was the decision correct? The numbers suggest otherwise. In 2021, the excitement of Verstappen’s first world championship overshadowed Perez’s performance, as he finished the season with 48% of Max’s points, aligning with Albon’s performance. The situation slightly improved in 2022 (454 points for Verstappen, 305 for Perez), but in 2023, it returned to 50%, dropping to 35% this season.
Red Bull has realized that while Perez is appreciated by Verstappen, his presence is no longer worth the cost. The sponsorships Checo brought from long-time supporters do not offset the financial impact of the team finishing third in the Constructors’ Championship. Had Perez matched the points tally of George Russell or Lewis Hamilton, Red Bull would have celebrated both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles.
Success often masks problems, and Verstappen’s dominance has overshadowed Red Bull’s chaotic management and scouting failures. Helmut Marko’s radar missed drivers like Russell, Leclerc, Piastri, Norris, and even younger talents like Oliver Bearman and Kimi Antonelli, despite having the advantage of managing two F1 seats at Racing Bulls. This opportunity has largely been wasted, aside from securing Verstappen in the summer of 2014.
Ironically, despite owning a satellite team, Red Bull will field a driver alongside Verstappen next year who has competed in only 11 Grands Prix across two seasons. This is a result of Marko’s disorganized approach, alternating between high-profile recalls (like Daniel Ricciardo) and fleeting experiments (like Nyck De Vries). Additionally, the team has let go of drivers no longer deemed useful, such as Carlos Sainz, Pierre Gasly, and Alexander Albon.
With Lawson’s promotion, Marko hopes to find stability. Liam has shown talent and adaptability, but he will start his first full F1 season as Verstappen’s teammate—a role far from ideal but a major opportunity nonetheless. However, whether he will be given the time to grow and adjust remains uncertain. A better plan could have allowed Lawson to gain more experience at Racing Bulls, arriving better prepared for what is likely the most significant challenge of his career.
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