Beautiful and unexpected race at Imola
A beautiful race, the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, held on the historic Imola circuit. Pre-race predictions called for boredom, an overtaking-impossible track, and long, soporific DRS trains. Instead, a combination of factors made the Italian race quite interesting, both in terms of on-track action (with the obvious help of the late Safety Car), and in terms of strategy, with the complicated choice between 1 and 2 stops and Leclerc’s early undercut which significantly reshuffled the standings.
Phenomenal Verstappen on a Red Bull that is now frightening
In Miami, the championship seemed already decided, with McLaren making its first significant break in both standings. But Imola told a different story. The Red Bull team (reportedly) completed its first round of updates, and the impression is that the RB21 has shifted up a gear. Downforce has increased, the range of usable setups has widened considerably, with good management of both front-end sliding and rear tire degradation. Better aerodynamic efficiency results in less thermal load on the tires, and even in a relatively “hot” race environmentally, McLaren showed no significant advantage—in fact, practically no pace advantage at all over Red Bull.
From our estimates, during the middle stints in clean air, Norris was able to run about a tenth to a tenth and a half faster per lap than Verstappen, who, however, had over an 18-second lead, making it hard to believe he was pushing his car to the limit. In the first stint, once Max took the lead, he never really let Piastri get close, with the Australian eventually switching to a two-stop strategy with an early pit stop. The Imola track definitely suited the Milton Keynes car better, with faster, more flowing corners and fewer purely mechanical sections like the Gresini chicane or the curb jumps in sector one at Tamburello and Villeneuve. What was noticeable is that Verstappen seems to be doing what we’ve seen from him in recent seasons: the low and stiff car has a lot of downforce, so it’s preferable to stay away from curbs and bumps and exploit grip, rather than take shorter lines by aggressively riding the bumps and losing stability first, then traction, having to wait to get back on the throttle at corner exit.
Although this is clearly a typical limitation of the current generation of Red Bull’s ground-effect cars, Verstappen “bypasses” it so effectively that it almost always compensates for the disadvantage, thanks to the tremendous grip he can extract—and in his “magic” hands, the car becomes a winner. When turn 1 is particularly decisive and the Dutchman produces a masterpiece like the one seen at Imola (helped by a Piastri who was objectively too conservative), the win is assured: Verstappen’s brake release between turns 1 and 2 of Tamburello was nothing short of perfect, while Piastri braked too early and then missed the optimal line, passing through the second part of the chicane 26 km/h slower. The trend continued at Villeneuve, where Verstappen, in clean air, was 14 km/h faster than Piastri and 26 faster than Russell, showing his ability to read grip immediately and use a cold-tire lap like no one else on the grid.
McLaren solid, but not spectacular. Piastri clearly worse than Norris
As for the world championship leaders, it’s certainly not a case of the car underperforming, but it’s clear that the combination of a high-speed circuit and Red Bull’s upgrades virtually erased the advantage the Woking team had on the Santerno hills. The McLaren MCL39 still had its traits—responsive in direction changes and strong over curbs thanks to its superior mechanical package—but the lack of slow corners prevented either Piastri or Norris from gaining a significant performance edge. In medium-high speed sections, Red Bull is now on par with Stella’s cars. Yes, the papaya car running now is practically the same as at the start of the season, with updates still pending—if they work, they could revive McLaren’s form—but the impression is that Red Bull’s step forward puts Verstappen back in real contention for the championship. Monaco should strongly favor Piastri and Norris, with its slow corners and extremely soft setups, but the following race in Barcelona—with new wings and more—will reveal how much hope the reigning World Champion has of defending his title.
The most disappointed by the Imola weekend is undoubtedly Mercedes. George Russell’s third-place start quickly gave way to the realization that their race pace wasn’t podium-worthy. High temperatures again exposed the W16’s thermal tire management issues, and despite the updates, the car continues to show significant struggles in long stints. Considering the new rear suspension components and frequent driver complaints about the car’s behavior, it seems the new package has not been properly exploited and has instead created confusion among drivers and engineers, who have been unable to find the right setup compromise. This will need further evaluation in the upcoming races.
Ferrari third-best in the race, good but not cause for celebration
As for the red team, Hamilton and Leclerc’s comeback can only boost morale at Maranello after a disastrous and embarrassing Saturday. This time, choosing to split strategies paid off, with Leclerc aggressive and quick in the first half of the race, though his recovery was blunted by the VSC and Safety Car—events that instead helped Hamilton, who was running an entirely opposite strategy. What we saw was a Ferrari that was the third-best team in the race, by our calculations a bit more than 0.2s slower per lap than the frontrunners—certainly very different from qualifying form, but still not on par with the leaders, in part due to the inevitable “backward step” the SF-25 must take for lack of updates compared to the competition. Mercedes’ collapse this weekend was certainly a big help, but the race confirmed a trend we’ve seen throughout the season’s first part: Ferrari comes alive after the first third of the race, entering its ideal performance window with about 65–70 kg of fuel on board and staying strong until the end. This is still due to the usual factors—setup approach and suspension package that keep the car at the ideal ride height in that fuel load and cornering speed range—but which can’t deliver the same results at higher speeds and lighter fuel loads, as in qualifying.
Leclerc’s comments are somewhat concerning—he said the simulator work is massive as they search for a solution, but also admitted the solution hasn’t been found yet, and that no major updates will come until it is. Quite a different tune from Lewis Hamilton, who spoke of finally feeling connected with his car and called it one of his best F1 races. That last part feels a bit much, though the seven-time world champion certainly had a strong drive. Thinking of his many years of wins, a fourth place deserves celebration given the comeback—but it should also be taken for what it is, especially since it came partly thanks to the Virtual and Safety Cars that helped him recover, after spending half the race stuck behind Kimi Antonelli. That said, we won’t criticize him—Hamilton’s energy and leadership are likely what the team needs right now, and it’s entirely fitting for someone of his stature.
Williams deserves praise, Ferrari pit wall shows no fear or excess caution
A special mention goes to Williams, still running last season’s chassis but likely all the more familiar with the car because of it, which allows them to extract excellent performance. Alex Albon, smiling in interviews, said “it feels incredible to come here and say I’m not happy with a fifth place.” Regarding the incident involving the Thai driver and Leclerc, we believe Vasseur’s post-race comments clarify the situation. Regardless of who was right (the matter was borderline), there was a dialogue between the Ferrari pit wall and race control, and Ferrari’s TP said the feeling from the conversation with the FIA was negative.
We assume that means a penalty was being discussed directly, and that’s why Leclerc was told to give the position back—not out of excessive caution. On that note, listening to Leclerc’s team radio during the Safety Car, it’s clear that the team had authorized him to pit for new softs, but Leclerc chose to stay out after seeing Hamilton pit just ahead of him, to avoid losing time in a double-stack stop—as he himself said over the radio. So there was no fear from the pit wall, which had approved the pit stop, nor any undue deference from Leclerc. All in all, the fact that nobody opted for softs despite having them confirms it would have been an extremely risky choice.
Monaco: McLaren the favorite and a weekend to discover with C6 tires and mandatory double stop
The circus now moves to Monaco, where the abundance of slow corners and need for very soft setups should heavily favor McLaren. On the other hand, the C6 tire, seen in action this Sunday, should be a key factor, as well as the mandatory two-stop strategy. So the Monaco weekend remains something of an unknown.
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