The Mexico Grand Prix weekend began with some clear initial trends, although these are entirely preliminary and subject to change given the evolving track and environmental conditions. The championship battle is heating up, but there are “guests” who might influence the fight by occupying top positions. The hardest challenge for all teams is finding a balance between race pace and qualifying performance, with car setups already stressed by environmental factors, which vary significantly with fuel load. McLaren experienced this first-hand.
McLaren protects the front but slips in qualifying simulations
At Woking, the setup seemed aimed at shifting the car’s aerodynamic balance towards the front. This is no surprise: the MCL39 driven by Norris and Piastri has consistently shown a tendency to suffer from front-end graining. Mexico’s low-grip surface exacerbates this issue. The starting setup for both cars aimed to protect the front axle by loading it more, but as often happens, the car’s reaction differs between qualifying and race conditions. With low fuel and new soft tires, the front became overly precise, while the rear moved excessively, creating a nervous car that was difficult to handle.
Lando Norris, who had strong pace in qualifying simulations, ended up fourth after a big snap of oversteer in the fast turns 9-10 cost him nearly two-tenths. Oscar Piastri struggled to find balance, showing an anonymous start to the weekend. Norris recorded the lowest top speed, revealing a conservative engine mode and high aerodynamic drag under heavy fuel loads.
Red Bull almost perfect in qualifying, but struggles with race pace
In contrast, Max Verstappen and Red Bull excelled over a single lap. The RB21 performed well in both slow and fast corners, using a conservative engine mode on the straights while keeping some power for the main straight. Yuki Tsunoda’s strong performance confirms Red Bull’s qualifying balance. However, race pace revealed challenges: the car struggled to get the medium tires into the optimal performance window. Despite good downforce, Verstappen reported feeling like he was “driving on ice,” producing an average pace not particularly competitive, especially against Lando Norris.
McLaren dominates race pace with Norris
Norris’s long-run pace on soft tires was impressive, averaging nearly a second per lap faster than rivals, including his teammate. If McLaren maintains this in the race, it could be difficult for anyone to keep him behind, especially if Piastri continues to struggle. Tire management and strategy will be critical: Norris and McLaren used soft tires efficiently in long runs without overheating, while Verstappen and others struggled with medium tires, raising questions about the Pirelli compounds for this weekend.
Ferrari starts strong, aiming to insert itself in the battle
Ferrari had a solid debut in Mexico. The SF25 shows slightly less downforce but has a strong aero-mechanical package, performing well in faster corners with higher lateral loads. Engineers seem to have found a good compromise between curb absorption and roll stiffness, positioning Ferrari as the third force on track. Leclerc and Hamilton could challenge the top contenders with a strong qualifying, though Mercedes and Antonelli are also close and could influence the race outcome.
Much still to discover
Nothing is final, as teams will work overnight to address issues and adapt to the evolving track and environmental conditions, crucial for tire performance. FP3 and qualifying will reveal the real picture for this important title-deciding race.
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