Red Bull didn’t make a great impression in Bahrain. In Saudi Arabia, round 5 of the 2025 F1 season, there’s a need to change pace. To return to fighting at the front and compete for meaningful positions. Failing to do so would mean a miserable failure and further inflame the already tense atmosphere within the team. Everything is in flux, in short. From Friday morning, it’s back on track — we’ll see what happens.
Jeddah: suspension setup favors the RB21
The Jeddah street circuit is one of the fastest on the calendar. On paper, it should be a favorable track for the characteristics of the Austrian car. In fact, last year, the RB19 claimed victory here thanks to clear technical superiority. And for this season, the outlook remains largely encouraging.
The circuit is characterized by a sequence of high-speed corners, where it’s crucial to have plenty of aerodynamic downforce, especially if it’s generated by the floor. In this aspect, the RB21 remains one of the most effective cars on the grid. The design philosophy continues to maximize downforce from the floor, an essential factor for tackling this track’s corners with speed and stability.
Moreover, compared to Bahrain, where a softer setup was required and created problems for the car, Jeddah allows for much stiffer setups — a condition that perfectly suits the RB21’s nature. Red Bull’s difficulty in adapting to low suspension stiffness setups is now evident, and a track like the Saudi one is an opportunity to mask those weaknesses.
Tyre management issues
As always, tyre management will be a crucial factor not to underestimate — an element that has defined the early standings this season. From track to track, the biggest difference between cars lies in tyre usage. The long straights and the low asphalt abrasiveness will test teams’ ability to quickly bring front tyres up to temperature, especially on flying laps.
However, compared to direct rivals like McLaren, Red Bull has shown greater efficiency in activating the front tyres. Racing at night could further help in controlling the thermal window — an element that can make a difference in the early qualifying laps and in race strategy. Jeddah’s lower abrasiveness compared to Bahrain translates to lower degradation.
That’s good news for Red Bull. Excessive tyre consumption has been one of the issues highlighted since the start of the season, as the Austrian cars have struggled notably in this area. The problems became especially clear during the Bahrain Grand Prix, where the RB21 suffered a major performance drop in the second half of the stint.
The data doesn’t match as expected
To mitigate this weakness, Red Bull may introduce updates aimed at thermal management and degradation control. These updates aren’t expected to be revolutionary or visible, but they represent a necessary step while waiting for a more significant upgrade package planned for Imola. However, that package might be delayed due to the reasons explained below. The crucial issue is data correlation.
Christian Horner has expressed concern that the results from the wind tunnel are no longer matching what’s happening on track. In short, there’s no longer a correlation between the simulator and the real-world data. This is new for Red Bull, which until now — despite working with one of the least advanced wind tunnels in the paddock — had always maintained remarkable consistency in this area.
This mismatch has led the team to develop the car in a direction that now appears to be wrong. It’s an important realization, which could slow the update package expected in the coming races. On a track like Jeddah, which highlights Red Bull’s strengths and masks some of its structural weaknesses, it will be crucial to gather clear insights into the current package’s validity.
It will be important to assess whether the corrective measures will be enough to keep a project alive that now seems to be showing cracks. Red Bull isn’t used to chasing. In Saudi Arabia, it must prove that the path taken can still lead somewhere. An emergency meeting has already taken place — attended by Christian Horner, Helmut Marko, Paul Monaghan, and Pierre Waché — to plan the team’s short-term future.
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