McLaren approaches Saudi Arabia, round 5 of the 2025 F1 season, with some concerns. Let’s go step by step. Bahrain revealed that the MCL39 isn’t as far behind as many thought. It’s true, Oscar Piastri drove alone and managed the race, but the British car has a slimmer advantage than expected. We must also consider that Sakhir is one of the toughest early-season tracks in terms of degradation, where race pace is severely tested.
The key strategy for managing the performance edge
Last weekend, there wasn’t a huge gap, and Norris, despite recovering through the field, still struggled with pace. The Woking-based team, therefore, also has weaknesses to address. One of the biggest risks for a team that becomes a technical benchmark is precisely the tendency to stop recognizing its own limits. Red Bull was a clear example of this last season and paid the price.
McLaren must avoid this “trap,” continuing to push consistently in every area of the car. Pressure from rivals will increase, and the performance gap could shrink quickly. The early-season calendar is very compact, and big improvements can happen in just a few weeks—as the English team itself demonstrated last season. Another fundamental strategic point must also be remembered.
The team has chosen not to show its full potential. It does not want to come under the FIA’s spotlight, especially on the topic of flexible wings, where tighter regulations will arrive in Spain. There is therefore a deliberate intention to manage their advantage smartly. Pushing too early could be a double-edged sword. Montmeló will be the toughest proving ground and could be a turning point in the competitive order.
Thermal issues must be managed
The Jeddah track presents different challenges from Bahrain. Long, fast, and technical, the Saudi circuit requires a car that is efficient on the straights but stable in fast corners. The MCL39, thanks in part to its high aeroelasticity, has shown excellent aerodynamic efficiency, achieving competitive top speeds. In Sakhir, Red Bull’s challenge was to manage rear-end overheating.
In Saudi Arabia, however, the world champions will face the opposite issue: difficulty activating the front tyres. One aspect is particularly related to the MCL39’s suspension architecture. The team has adopted the highest anti-dive level on the grid—an extreme choice that raised eyebrows from Pierre Waché due to the limitations it can bring. With this geometry, the front end of an F1 car is less stressed.
It generates less heat in the tyres, making it harder to reach the target temperature. This is a known issue at Woking, where countermeasures were already introduced during winter development, but it still surfaces slightly in qualifying, when drivers report struggles in immediately activating the front end. However, the real concern lies in the car’s performance over the full 300-kilometre race distance.
During a stint, Pirelli tyre degradation causes a progressive loss of deformable material and, as a result, a limit on the energy generated and temperature. This can easily lead to the dreaded graining effect, especially if the front end is not properly protected.
Even with overall limited degradation, as expected on Jeddah’s less abrasive asphalt compared to Bahrain, the risk of entering this downward spiral is real—especially if, as mentioned, the suspension layout “favours” such tendencies. The British team will therefore need to focus on more front-biased balance and a setup aimed at activating the front end.
Avoiding traffic with the MCL39: the goal for Jeddah
Another issue that emerged in the early races is the difficulty in finding pace in traffic. When the McLarens are in the pack, and not in clean air—as seen in the battle with Ferrari—the management of turbulence appears weaker than in other cars. This aspect limits performance. That’s why qualifying at the front is crucial for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
This was evident with Lando Norris who, despite a solid comeback, had less pace. It’s certainly very difficult to simulate a car in dirty air, as the incoming flow has no defined structure. In the wind tunnel, only runs with clean flow hitting the model can be performed. CFD allows for slightly more, but it still remains a difficult scenario. McLaren knows this and will try to avoid it.
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