The 2024 season has been a challenging one for Mercedes, marked by ups and downs that highlighted both the limitations and potential of the Brackley team. After a decade of unrivaled dominance, the Silver Arrows have seemed far from their previous sparkling form, despite some successes that have sparked hope for the future. For 2025, the goal is to develop a car, the Mercedes W16, with consistency of performance as its primary virtue.
Toto Wolff, the team’s head, and the engineers have acknowledged the need for greater consistency in order to compete at the highest level once again. The technical and strategic struggles faced with the W15, along with the news of Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari in 2025, presented a challenge to both morale and overall performance. However, the team has shown it is capable of bouncing back and preparing for a return to the top.
The season started off slowly, with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton unable to compete with Max Verstappen’s dominant Red Bull. The lack of podiums in the early part of the year exposed issues with the setup and tire wear of the W15, making it clear that the car was not up to expectations.
Mercedes W15: Mid-Season Shift That Wasn’t Fully Realized
The turning point came in Monaco with an upgrade to the front wing that significantly improved performance. It was there that the team began to see progress, which culminated in Canada, where George Russell secured pole position and a podium finish, marking a key moment in the 2024 season.
Soon after, Mercedes secured their first win of the season in Austria, followed by a second at Silverstone, where Hamilton took his first Grand Prix win since 2021. This success was followed by more strong performances, including a victory at Spa-Francorchamps and an impressive double podium in Las Vegas.
Positive signs were evident, but these were not enough to overcome the continued inconsistency due to challenges in finding the ideal operational window—likely linked to an unpredictable rear end. Specifically, the handling of the rear tires, especially in high-temperature conditions, became a mental hurdle for the engineering team in Brackley.
Many described the W15 as a “nighttime car,” performing best in cooler conditions. This trait limited its performance on hotter circuits. Similar issues were observed on the Aston Martin AMR24, which happens to use the same rear axle, unlike the McLaren MCL38, which independently designs this crucial component.
Mercedes W16: Focus on the Rear End
By studying the lessons learned from the papaya-colored car, Mercedes engineers have already identified the rear end as a top priority for the 2025 car, aiming to improve both its mechanical and aerodynamic components. There are positive examples: Ferrari, which struggled with tire wear in 2023, managed to solve this issue in the recently concluded season. For Mercedes, the MCL38 and the SF-24 are both sources of inspiration, proving that such an improvement is achievable.
Toto Wolff is not willing to entertain the idea of waving the white flag in the final year of the current regulations. “We will have the same rules we have now. If we can fight for wins, then we can fight for the championship,” he stated. There is another factor that could aid Mercedes in its comeback plan: the increased wind tunnel time obtained by dropping from second to fourth in the constructors’ standings. This will make a significant difference at the design level.
In a year when Andrea Kimi Antonelli will debut full-time, Mercedes knows it must produce a car that is “readable,” easy to drive, and adaptable to ensure that the Italian talent, in whom the team has invested considerable resources and time, doesn’t face problems that could hinder his growth. If the W16 is competitive from the start, Antonelli could surprise, just as Hamilton did on his debut in 2007.
Mercedes has shown it can still win, but the key to success will be finding the consistency that was missing in 2024 and the two previous years. The engineers and the team believe they have identified where and how to intervene. Now, it is up to the design teams to prove with results that they are right.
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