The slight prediction advantage McLaren had coming into Australia became big enough to secure the team an authoritative front row. The clues turned into evidence, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri starting the World Championship from first and second positions, driving the fastest car. The times say it all, on a track that takes seventy-five seconds to complete: Norris (and shortly after, Piastri) placed Verstappen’s Red Bull four-tenths behind, Russell’s Mercedes five-tenths, and Leclerc’s Ferrari seven-tenths.
It’s true that this is the first qualifying session of the year (last season, the eventual world champion McLaren at Albert Park was four-tenths off Max Verstappen, the poleman), but it is well known that this season’s development campaign will be less intense.
Zak Brown raised his fists to the sky, a bit ‘brash’ but not unjustified in his celebration. McLaren was flawless in managing qualifying, revealing their cards when it mattered and showing a deadly balance in all three sectors of the Albert Park circuit.
Max Verstappen, the only opponent Norris and Piastri genuinely feared, was superb in trying to resist despite the evident technical gap. At Red Bull, they made drastic setup changes between Friday and Saturday, achieving results. Achieving more was realistically impossible; the drivability issues were reduced, but the price to pay was tire management. Max was able to count on good grip until Turn 11, where his split times matched the McLarens. After that, he suffered from progressive tire overheating, which caused him to lose four-tenths (compared to Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri) in the third sector, the final gap on the lap.
Red Bull has corrected its weekend; the prospect of a wet race (considered likely based on weather forecasts) could even open up opportunities for a victory that would be surprising. On the other hand, Ferrari came out of Albert Park’s Saturday with broken bones. Being behind McLaren was expected, but being behind Verstappen’s Red Bull was less so. Instead, by the end of Q3, in front of the Charles Leclerc – Lewis Hamilton duo, George Russell, Yuki Tsunoda, and Alex Albon also squeezed in, a result that not even the most pessimistic or superstitious Ferrari fan could have imagined.
In Q1, Charles Leclerc was confirmed one-tenth behind the first position, a gap that became four-tenths in Q2 and nearly seven at the end of qualifying. Without an error in the last lap, Charles might have grabbed a second row, reducing the margin to pole by a couple of tenths, but in technical terms, it wouldn’t have changed much. After a very promising Friday, Ferrari got lost on Saturday, not by a small margin, betrayed by technical choices that didn’t match the higher temperatures and especially the increased grip on track provided by the rubber laid down in the racing line.
In terms of the stage result, Scuderia’s perspective has changed radically. The first race of the season looks to be a defensive one, with the goal of limiting damage, and in this context, rain could play in their favor. As an outsider, as Ferrari will be tomorrow, any unexpected variable is welcome. Racing on the Albert Park circuit with rain tires drastically increases the chances of seizing opportunities, as long as they are ready to take them.
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