Four red flags, one of which lasted twenty minutes, heavily affected the first day of running at Suzuka, particularly limiting teams in their long run simulations with heavy fuel loads, even though several teams had already collected some early data at the end of FP1.
Nevertheless, despite the many interruptions that limited the teams’ work, Friday in Japan gave the first hints at how the rest of the weekend might unfold, albeit with some question marks that could significantly influence the balance of power.
And it’s precisely that word — balance — that is the starting point when evaluating McLaren’s Friday at Suzuka, because it’s from the balance offered by the MCL39 that the British team’s superiority on day one in Japan stems. Not by chance, after free practice, Charles Leclerc stated, “McLaren seems to be on another planet.”
The two papaya cars ended the day with a four-tenth margin over their closest competitor, who this time was not one of the usual suspects, but rather Isack Hadjar. While it’s true that Racing Bulls may have used slightly more aggressive engine modes on the straights, the VCARB02 seems to confirm its strong cornering ability and balance, which have been its yet-to-be-capitalised strengths in the first two GPs.
Looking further ahead, McLaren identified George Russell as the most dangerous rival for the rest of the weekend, particularly over a single lap, where it’s already clear that the MCL39 can be beaten if the drivers don’t put together a clean lap.
The four-tenth gap seen today between McLaren and Ferrari/Mercedes is only partially real, as both the British and Italian teams feel they have more performance to unlock. Norris, for instance, could have shaved off more tenths on his final lap if not for traffic. Mercedes, in particular, seems to still suffer from the same issues seen in the first two races, especially struggling to find the ideal window on the soft tyre.
But this is one of the key topics that shaped the pecking order on Friday at Suzuka. The layout of the Japanese track is quite unique: already in the first sector, tyres are heavily stressed with high loads, followed by traction zones and more long corners throughout the lap.
This makes it very difficult to find the ideal balance in tyre management, and it’s one of the reasons why many drivers were unable to piece together their best sector times in a single lap. The fact that many drivers hit the track simultaneously after the red flags didn’t help either, but tyre preparation and management during the lap are equally crucial.
McLaren has made that balance a key part of its Friday advantage. A balance that breaks down into two areas: performance and tyre management. Looking at the FP2 lap data, it’s immediately clear that the MCL39 is strong and competitive in every area: fast corners, slow ones, and the straights — though of course, the uncertainty around engine modes remains and will be clearer tomorrow.
Even more interesting is the comparison between what could have been Charles Leclerc’s best time without the slight traffic at the end of his lap and Lando Norris’s final attempt, during which he was improving by over three and a half tenths before encountering traffic from Max Verstappen in the final sector — with the Dutchman on a heavier-fuel mini-stint and lifting before the finish line.
It becomes clear that, even in that lap where Charles Leclerc pushed hard in the first sector (planning to go for a softer approach in the next run for better overall balance), McLaren was still able to match Ferrari’s pace, despite the Monegasque having set the absolute best time in that segment. The same holds true for Mercedes with George Russell.
The key point? McLaren is able to make a difference across the rest of the lap too, widening the gap to rivals significantly, even while maintaining strong pace in the first sector. The MCL39 has excellent downforce, which it shows clearly through the Esses, but this needs to be combined with its great ability to preserve the tyres across the other two sectors.
This is especially evident in the slower sections, where McLaren is able to rotate the car better and get on the power earlier. Additionally, the MCL39’s relatively softer setup, as seen on other occasions, allows it to attack the curbs during direction changes, gaining more time — an aspect that isn’t visible on the data charts due to the traffic encountered by Norris.
McLaren’s only two concerns are: first, that tomorrow the wind is expected to shift drastically, rotating 180 degrees according to forecasts. On a track like Suzuka, where stability is key, this could affect the car’s behaviour and possibly expose both drivers to the minor “management” issues seen during qualifying laps in places like China.
Today the wind was favourable in sector one, providing more load, but if it rotates tomorrow, it could increase sliding — something that, of course, will affect everyone, so finding the right adjustment will be crucial. The second concern is the front-left graining seen in FP3, although on a green track, and which is expected to improve as the weekend progresses.
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