Behind the McLarens, out in front as expected, is Mercedes, which — as in Australia and China — wants to confirm itself as the real surprise and enter the fight for the podium, potentially a third in as many races. A result that, judging by Friday, doesn’t seem out of reach, especially as the feeling on the harder tyres looked positive.
There are still a few details to sort out, following the same trend seen in the first two races of the championship — namely, refining the feeling on the soft tyre over a single lap, where it’s all about putting the puzzle pieces together at the right time. We saw clearly in China how the W16 still depends heavily on ambient and track conditions when it comes to performance, and on a demanding circuit like Suzuka, finding the right combination is crucial.
For example, Andrea Kimi Antonelli struggled with the same issues faced elsewhere: arriving in sector one with tyres outside their optimal window, too cold — which explains the gap to his teammate in the high-speed sequence, where a small mistake can haunt you for most of the Esses.
The balance on the soft tyre is always delicate, because you also want to avoid the opposite issue — arriving with tyres too hot and risking overheating in the first sector, which would then cause problems in the slower parts of the lap. Analysing the data, this is precisely what stands out: the two Mercedes drivers have very different approaches, with George Russell competitive in the first sector but suffering more in the slower sections.
For now, Mercedes seems quite satisfied with its potential and is confident, above all, that it can fight not just for the first two rows in qualifying, but also for the podium, as the car’s balance has immediately been close to an ideal window, giving the drivers confidence right away.
However, maintaining this form tomorrow will be key, as the wind is expected to change. On a track where stability in medium and high-speed corners is essential, gusts of wind can have a significant impact on balance, since every aerodynamic setup reacts differently.
“From our side, it was quite a positive day. The car behaved very well and, to be honest, I was very happy with it. We have to make sure the situation stays the same for tomorrow. The wind is playing a big role. There’s a lot of wind out there and tomorrow it will turn 180 degrees. That will change the car’s feel. But I’m confident we can fight for the first two rows,” explained George Russell.
It’s worth noting that after just one attempt on the soft tyre, both Mercedes cars opted not to do another qualifying simulation at the end, focusing instead on the feel with more fuel onboard, returning to the harder compound. The belief is that Sunday’s race will be a one-stop, but having more data could have helped form a clearer idea of how and how much the tyres will need to be managed to hit that target.
“Often when you fit the hard tyre, it lasts quite a while. I did four laps with that tyre, and on Sunday we hope to do about 30. So, it’s in the last 10 laps of the race that you see whether the tyre can hold up or not. That will be a surprise for everyone on Sunday,” added Russell.
“There might be some rain coming. I don’t think there’s much to learn from that. But, as I said, we’ve always been there or thereabouts on the timesheets, which is the most important thing.”
Although the two McLaren drivers have named Russell as their main rival — though more over a single lap than in race trim — the Brit himself admitted that the two Woking cars are out of reach when they put together a clean lap.
“I think the McLarens are once again very strong and, when they hook up a lap, they’re a step ahead. But that’s, you know — we know that. And some drivers, like Isack Hadjar, did a great job. He was also very quick, which was a surprise. So we don’t know what tomorrow will bring. It’s a bit unusual to see so many different teams in the mix. But I like to think we’ll be fighting for the top four spots.”
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