With four races remaining in the 2025 Formula 1 season, fans are eagerly watching Max Verstappen’s chances of completing what would be a historic comeback in his fight against Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for a fifth consecutive world championship. After the Dutch Grand Prix, the Red Bull driver was 104 points behind the leader, but ahead of the Brazilian Grand Prix, the gap has been reduced to just 36 points. Despite having already clawed back a remarkable number of points from the McLaren pair, Max Verstappen’s task remains extremely difficult. In fact, even winning all the remaining races – including the Sprint events – might not be enough to secure the title.
For fans of the Dutch driver looking for a glimmer of hope from F1 history, there is one strong precedent: the 2007 season. That year has often been cited as a warning by McLaren CEO Zak Brown himself. Back then, McLaren also had two drivers fighting each other for the championship – Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton – while the third contender came from another team, Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen. The outcome of that World Championship is well known: Kimi Raikkonen won the title in the final race, finishing just one point ahead of both McLaren drivers.
The lesson from 2007
The similarities between the two seasons are striking. With four rounds remaining in 2007, Kimi Raikkonen was 18 points behind Hamilton, who led the standings, and 15 behind Alonso, who was second. Under the scoring system of the time, a win was worth 10 points, second place 8, and points were awarded down to eighth place with 1 point. Applying today’s scoring system to that same situation, Kimi Raikkonen would have been 40 points behind Hamilton and 36 behind Fernando Alonso. On paper, Max Verstappen’s current challenge is therefore slightly less daunting than the one “The Iceman” faced 17 years ago.
However, it must be remembered that Kimi Raikkonen’s title success was made possible not only by his near-perfect final run but also by several mistakes from both Hamilton and Alonso. The Finnish driver claimed three victories and one third-place finish in the last four races, while both McLaren drivers suffered at least one zero. Alonso finished on the podium three times but never won, while the then-rookie Hamilton scored one victory, one retirement, a fourth place, and a seventh place. Even under today’s points system, that record would still have cost Hamilton the title.
Current 2025 standings (after the Mexican GP):
- Lando Norris – 357 points
- Oscar Piastri – 356 points
- Max Verstappen – 321 points
2007 standings (after the Japanese GP):
- Lewis Hamilton – 92 points
- Fernando Alonso – 89 points
- Kimi Raikkonen – 74 points
While Max Verstappen’s situation may appear challenging, history shows that even the most unlikely title comebacks can become reality under the right circumstances. All it takes is a perfect run from the reigning champion and a few missteps from the McLaren duo. With four rounds to go, the fight for the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship is still far from over.
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