At the Hermanos Rodríguez circuit, activity is frenzied. The track setups are almost complete, and the equipment shipped from Austin has been put into place. No one had expected to arrive at the Mexican Grand Prix with the drivers’ championship still open for a competitor who is not driving a McLaren.
Moreover, talking to many insiders, the belief is growing that in the end Max Verstappen will strike decisively. On-record, everyone smiles politely, but off-record conversations reveal a flurry of predictions, opinions, and explanations.
Interestingly, it is not so much the points gap that is seen as Max Verstappen’s biggest challenge, but the impossibility of making any mistake. This translates into the need to avoid errors, both from Max and the team, and to hope that no unlucky incidents occur, such as contact at the first corner or other unforeseen circumstances. Otherwise, there is widespread confidence that Verstappen can continue his post-summer run, which includes three wins and two second-place finishes in the last five races.
For Dutch media, Max has become the favorite, but it is not just a matter of nationality. “McLaren has a lot at stake here in Mexico,” commented a key figure from a team out of championship contention. “If Max hits the mark again this weekend, I see it being very tough for Oscar and Lando—not so much because of points, but because of the pressure of having such a formidable rival breathing down your neck.”
Regarding the weekend ahead, Max Verstappen also benefits from the numbers. No one has won more on the Hermanos Rodríguez circuit than him: after his first triumph in 2017, he followed up with wins in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The 2,240 meters of altitude have never been an issue for the Honda power unit, and Red Bull’s form needs little comment.
Of course, attempting a comeback with no room for error carries risks. An engineer recalled last year’s Mexican Grand Prix, when Max Verstappen collected penalties, served twenty seconds, and finished a nondescript sixth. “If he leads, we will probably see a typical Max race,” he said, “but if he finds himself in a tight situation, you never know what to expect—a brilliant move or a borderline maneuver. And in his current situation, he cannot afford any penalties.”
It is notable that the two drivers leading the championship by a margin are viewed as a defensive tandem. Lando Norris’s performance at Austin confirmed that in terms of potential, the MCL39 is still a winning car, despite not being updated as extensively as its rival. Yet the technical aspect seems almost secondary—the ‘Verstappen’ variable dominates everything.
“It does not surprise me,” concluded a person with thirty years of Formula 1 experience, “because race after race, the comparison is increasingly moving toward the Max zone. The closer they get to the final stretch, the greater Verstappen’s advantage will be. He knows how to handle extreme pressure from 2021 and has cemented his experience in subsequent years. If the McLaren duo wants any chance, they must settle matters earlier—between Las Vegas and Doha—otherwise it will be very difficult for them.”
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