Max Verstappen is just 12 points behind the leader after 5 Grand Prix races. The reigning world champion has done everything possible to limit the damage in the early part of the season, but now he needs support from the car. Red Bull has shown signs of improvement over the last month, and these results are only partially justified by the compatibility between the RB21 and the tracks encountered. Acknowledging the limitations of their wind tunnel, the team is now focusing on track feedback to develop new setup strategies while awaiting the next update package.
The Suzuka Warning Signs
It was an intense triple-header for Max Verstappen, starting with an unexpected victory at Suzuka aboard the RB21 in white livery. However, the win didn’t deceive the world champion, who was aware that the Japanese track suited his driving style and the characteristics of the Red Bull, which excelled in controlling a precise and sharp front end through the many fast corners of the Japanese circuit. Suzuka’s victory was also built on Saturday, taking advantage of fresh tire grip to mask the car’s limits and qualify on pole, defending the position during the race with the help of a track that made overtaking difficult and an asphalt surface that was kind to the tires, reducing degradation.
Despite the result, the world champion didn’t hide the car’s limitations: “I’m still not happy with the balance, we need to work on it through the mid-corner.” Max Verstappen acknowledged that there were still clear issues to be addressed. Red Bull had spent much of Friday experimenting, finally settling on a setup in the nick of time for qualifying. Verstappen’s comments, however, continued to reflect a car that was balanced on entry and under acceleration but struggled with understeer in mid-corner. Evidence of this was Red Bull’s decision to switch to a less aggressive rear wing, aiming to provide Max Verstappen with a sharper front-end feel. The team then applied this approach in Bahrain, experimenting with an even more aggressive front wing configuration to improve balance further. However, the design and the asphalt of the Sakhir circuit exposed the car’s limits, making the issues even more evident.
The Wind Tunnel Deception
Unlike Japan, Bahrain was a more demanding circuit for the rear axle, where the RB21 couldn’t capitalize on the fast corners, which were outnumbered by the many tight turns. The high track temperatures severely worsened the balance issues, overheating the tires with even the slightest slide, even during qualifying. In the race, the rough asphalt caused higher thermal degradation, much worse than in Suzuka, exposing the RB21’s inability to manage rear tire wear, a strength of McLaren. Unbalanced and out of its optimal window, the Red Bull was challenging to handle under braking, leaving Verstappen with a lack of confidence.
After the race, Christian Horner pointed to the wind tunnel as the main source of the team’s headaches: “We understand the problems, but there is no correlation between the solutions we test with our tools and what we see on track. In particular, the wind tunnel has led us in a direction that doesn’t match the track performance.” Red Bull’s wind tunnel is known to be outdated, limiting the measurement technologies, and it’s not the only problem. The simulation chamber is highly sensitive to the thermal fluctuations of the English climate, leading to significant variations in temperature and pressure, parameters that ground-effect Formula 1 cars are particularly sensitive to, thus compromising simulation accuracy. “You end up with inconsistencies between the track data and what your tools predict,” Horner explained. “Now that we’re gathering real-world data, this will guide our solutions.”
The First Response in Jeddah
Red Bull was forced to change its approach, relying more heavily on track experimentation and analyzing the actual car to find fixes for the balance problems. A great example of this was seen in Saudi Arabia, where the team tried a new approach to setup. Verstappen explained, “We tried a few different things with the car and worked to find a different direction.” Friday’s session was one of the worst, with Verstappen having no connection with the RB21, but the data collected guided the work overnight, bringing the car to life.
Verstappen then claimed pole with an excellent lap on Saturday, not letting Oscar Piastri escape during the race despite losing the lead due to a penalty. The RB21 also proved competitive over long distances, but this was once again aided by smooth asphalt, low tire degradation, and a track rich in high-speed corners. Verstappen summarized the situation: “We need to find more performance, particularly in terms of balance, and obviously more consistency. We’re not competitive on every track, that’s pretty clear.”
Next Steps
The team now has two weeks to analyze the data gathered during the triple-header. The goal is to develop a better setup strategy, showing potential to optimize a car concept that differs from last year. Updates will also play a role, but it’s hard not to notice that resources are being diverted to address the cooling of the power unit, as evidenced by the three different hood specifications produced since the beginning of the season.
There is also great curiosity about the impact of the technical directive on front wing flexibility starting from the Spanish Grand Prix. It is difficult to predict who will suffer the most, but the flexible wing is a valuable tool to balance the car in transitions from high to low speeds. Its stiffening could complicate life for a team like Red Bull, which already faces balance issues. On the other hand, the aero profiles will maintain higher angles in corners, potentially boosting Max Verstappen’s ability to control a car that will be even sharper in high-speed sections. McLaren remains ahead, but the world champion and his team are still very much in the title fight.
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