With seven races and three sprint events remaining in the 2025 Formula 1 season, Max Verstappen sits 69 points behind Oscar Piastri, after trailing by 104 points following the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August. The Dutch driver has clawed back 35 points in just two events, helped in part by a disastrous weekend for the Australian McLaren driver at Baku. Has the championship reopened? Red Bull remains convinced otherwise, while McLaren continues to believe Verstappen is a serious contender. One thing is certain: much of this battle will be decided between Singapore and Austin, the next two races on the calendar.
Red Bull’s back-to-back wins in Baku and Monza have technical reasons
It is clear that Verstappen would still need at least one zero from Oscar Piastri, as 199 points remain on the table. Even if the Dutchman were to win all remaining races, the current championship leader would not be required to finish second in every event, including the sprints. Winning all the remaining races would certainly be an extraordinary achievement for Verstappen, given how the 2025 championship has unfolded so far. The last two races were held on very low- and medium-downforce tracks, with few medium-speed corners and where tire management was never a significant factor. Essentially, the opposite of three major strengths of the McLaren MCL39: extremely high efficiency at high downforce, exceptional performance in long medium-speed corners, and effective management of rear tire degradation, especially thermal wear.
It should come as no surprise that the MCL39 struggled in both Monza and Baku, although its true potential was not fully visible in the latter event. Red Bull capitalized on this, debuting the fifth floor update on the RB21 at Monza. According to Andrea Stella, this upgrade was crucial in unlocking additional performance on the rival car: “The way they won in Monza was more than just having a car that suits low-drag tracks. We saw they unlocked downforce by lowering the floor, which made them faster in medium- and low-speed corners as well as on the straights.” Red Bull later partially downplayed the update in an AutoRacer interview, describing it more as a better understanding of car setup and a slightly wider performance window rather than a dramatic improvement.
Singapore GP: Red Bull relying on Verstappen, but…
These technical improvements are paired with a new working method introduced by Laurent Mekies, which is already showing results and helping the Milton Keynes team arrive better prepared for Friday’s first practice sessions. It is worth noting that the technical department led by Pierre Wache is achieving remarkable results under the current technical cycle, especially given the infrastructure at Milton Keynes, including a wind tunnel that is truly outdated (as discussed previously) and which, due to construction permit delays, will only be replaced between 2026 and 2027.
“Singapore, Austin, and Mexico will be extremely tough,” a team member said. “We are very confident about Las Vegas.” Qualifying will be key at Marina Bay, and Red Bull is relying on Max Verstappen to perform a near-miracle. It is not Monaco again, but starting from pole will clearly make life easier in the eighteenth race of the season. That will not be the case in Austin, where overtaking is easier, meaning the team will also need a strong race pace to beat Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.
The Mekies method and the recent updates should help the RB21 perform better in Singapore and Austin compared to the poor showing in Budapest, two high-downforce circuits where Red Bull expects a very fast McLaren and likely a favorite. The team will still need to prove on track that the new front wing/floor combination has eliminated or at least reduced the severe understeer seen in Hungary, especially in slow corners with the high-downforce package. They will also need to improve rear tire management and control thermal degradation under high temperatures. None of this is guaranteed, even after two victories and progress with lower downforce wings, but only by achieving these improvements can Verstappen realistically attempt to put additional pressure on the two McLaren drivers. Piastri and Norris will arrive in Singapore focused on error-free performance on one of the most demanding circuits in terms of precision. Allowing Verstappen to close in would increase the pressure on two drivers with limited championship battle experience, turning what currently seems a theoretical and remote possibility into a much more realistic and surprising challenge in a title race that still appears to be a duel between the McLaren duo.
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