Riccardo Patrese believes Andrea Kimi Antonelli is the favourite to win the 2026 Formula 1 world championship after his Belgian Grand Prix victory, but the former driver has warned that Mercedes reliability could still influence the title fight. Antonelli delivered an impeccable weekend at Spa-Francorchamps, extending his championship lead over Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes team-mate George Russell.
The Italian’s sixth career victory also brought him level with Riccardo Patrese’s tally of Formula 1 wins. However, despite praising Antonelli’s speed, consistency and growing strength, Patrese believes it is too early to consider him champion with 11 races still to be contested.
Kimi Antonelli extends his championship lead at Spa
Andrea Kimi Antonelli passed his Belgian Grand Prix test with flying colours. His victory allowed the Mercedes driver not only to protect his position at the top of the Formula 1 drivers’ standings, but also to increase his advantage over George Russell.
George Russell ended up in the gravel following contact with Lewis Hamilton and has now fallen to third in the championship, behind the Ferrari driver. The gap between Lewis Hamilton and the young Italian championship leader has consequently grown to 45 points.
Antonelli’s Spa-Francorchamps weekend was virtually flawless. By claiming his sixth Formula 1 victory, he matched the career total achieved by fellow Italian Riccardo Patrese, who has now identified the Mercedes driver as the leading candidate for the 2026 title.
Riccardo Patrese calls Kimi Antonelli the F1 title favourite
Speaking in an interview with New Betting Sites, Riccardo Patrese explained why he regards Andrea Kimi Antonelli as the favourite while stopping short of declaring the championship battle over. Mercedes reliability, the number of races remaining and the continuing competition with George Russell all prevent such a conclusion.
“No, I don’t think Kimi is the champion yet. Because, as we have seen, reliability can sometimes make the difference, even for Kimi,” Riccardo Patrese explained.
“Kimi is the favourite. He is in a very strong position, he is in excellent form and the car, when it works, is super competitive. So he is the favourite, but at this point, with 11 races still to go, the gap is not big enough for Kimi to say: ‘OK, I will be the champion.’”
Mercedes has so far resisted prematurely prioritising one side of its garage, with Toto Wolff explaining why the team will not yet favour Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Patrese nevertheless believes the Italian currently holds the stronger position in their internal contest.
“It will be interesting to see what happens between him and George Russell in the future. Kimi is in a better position than George Russell. Kimi has shown several times that he can be more competitive than Russell.”
“There is one problem for Mercedes: reliability. But Kimi is becoming stronger and stronger, he does not make mistakes, he is very fast and his car is fast. That is why he is the favourite.”
Patrese places Antonelli among Formula 1’s elite talents
Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s development from his rookie season last year into a championship leader has not particularly surprised Riccardo Patrese. Before the season began, the six-time Grand Prix winner had already expected his compatriot to become considerably stronger once he had accumulated a full year of Formula 1 experience.
Patrese is reluctant to make definitive comparisons between Antonelli and the greatest champions in Formula 1 history, as Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has done on several occasions. However, he believes the young Italian possesses the same calibre of talent as Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.
“No, he hasn’t surprised me,” Riccardo Patrese continued. “Before the start of the season, I said that with a year of experience behind him, Kimi could be very, very strong and competitive.”
“I expected it because he has something that elevates him above an ordinary ‘good’ champion. I cannot yet say that he is as exceptional as Senna or Schumacher, or even Verstappen and Hamilton, because they have many titles behind them. But he is of that calibre. He is in that league.”
“He is a special talent and will be a special champion. He has already shown with six victories and many pole positions that he is truly special. You also need the luck of a great champion—to be in the right place at the right time—and he has certainly had that this season.”
Mercedes reliability remains the unanswered question
Patrese’s assessment reflects the balance of the current championship situation. Antonelli has the lead, the momentum and a highly competitive Mercedes, while George Russell must recover from a costly Belgian Grand Prix. Toto Wolff has nevertheless continued to support the British driver as Mercedes pursues a cleaner Hungarian Grand Prix weekend.
The internal Mercedes contest has also prompted questions about whether Antonelli and George Russell are receiving different treatment. Patrese’s comments instead focus on their performance and championship positions, with the former Williams driver arguing that Antonelli has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to be more competitive.
The wider title picture remains open, particularly with Lewis Hamilton now occupying second place after Ferrari’s encouraging performance in Belgium. The Italian team may have missed the Spa victory, but its pace on hard tyres also provided reasons for optimism about Ferrari’s championship challenge.
With 11 rounds remaining, reliability could therefore become as important as outright performance. Patrese considers Antonelli the clear favourite, but his warning underlines why a 45-point advantage is not yet enough to settle a Formula 1 championship.
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