Red Bull rallies around the Verstappen–Marko axis
The future of Max Verstappen and the Red Bull Racing team continues to dominate discussions in Formula 1, even after the Dutch driver confirmed his intention to remain with the Milton Keynes-based team. After three years of near-uninterrupted dominance, the balance of power in the sport has shifted surprisingly quickly: McLaren has surged to the top, ending the Anglo-Austrian squad’s hegemony and opening unexpected questions about the future of the four-time world champion.
Over the past months, rumors and speculations—widely covered in our detailed analyses—have frequently linked Verstappen’s name with the possibility of an early departure from Red Bull. The Dutch driver, however, has helped dispel at least some of this uncertainty by reaffirming his commitment to honor the contract in place until 2028, confirming his presence in the team for the pivotal 2026 season, which will see sweeping regulatory changes. Nevertheless, as often happens in elite motorsport, the true value of a contract is determined by performance, and Helmut Marko is crystal clear on the matter: the absolute priority is to deliver a winning project to the driver.
From dominance to setback: Red Bull’s slowdown
Between 2022 and 2023, Red Bull established almost total control of Formula 1, capitalizing on a more effective interpretation of the new aerodynamic regulations. The RB18 and RB19 became benchmark cars, allowing Max Verstappen to set record after record. However, the trajectory has sharply shifted: while McLaren grew exponentially thanks to aggressive technical development and highly efficient internal organization, Red Bull gradually lost ground.
The 2024 season marked the first significant rupture in Red Bull’s recent history. Verstappen still secured his fourth world championship, primarily thanks to a flawless start to the season, but the Constructors’ Championship slipped away due to an RB20 that could not evolve effectively over the course of the year. In 2025, with McLaren already firmly in control, the new hierarchy has become evident. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are dominating the championship battle, relegating Max Verstappen to the role of pursuer.
Contract uncertainty and the 2027 question
Max Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull runs until 2028, which on paper seems to leave no room for doubt. In reality, performance clauses and team-dependent conditions could change everything. It is therefore no surprise that the Dutch driver remains at the center of transfer speculation, especially as Mercedes and Ferrari closely observe the situation.
Helmut Marko understands the stakes perfectly. Securing his star driver requires more than a solid contract; technical and sporting guarantees are essential. Marko explained to Krone that their objective is to return to winning alongside Verstappen, thereby eliminating any talk of contract clauses, clearly signaling the path the team intends to follow.
The 2026 revolution: a blank page
Formula 1 is preparing for a radical transformation. The 2026 season will introduce a new technical regulation, affecting every single component of a car. It is a complete reset, where every team will effectively start from scratch—a true blank page. For Red Bull, emerging from a relative decline over the past two years, this represents a valuable opportunity: to overturn the current balance of power and reclaim leadership in the sport.
The core of the challenge will be the power unit. The new specifications involve a different energy split, with a significantly higher proportion of power coming from the electrical system. Alongside the internal combustion engine, the battery, fuel systems, and fuel itself will take on decisive importance. The Austrian manager highlighted that the data collected so far are encouraging. “We are ahead in chassis development, but we know the engine will make the difference. Four factors will be crucial: internal combustion, battery, fuel, and energy management system,” he said.
The 2014 nightmare and Mercedes’ lesson
The reference point in the Red Bull offices is unmistakably the 2014 season, the year hybrid engines were introduced. Mercedes entered the championship with a 50–70 horsepower advantage over the competition, launching a nearly decade-long period of dominance. For Red Bull, which had just completed the Sebastian Vettel era with four consecutive championships, it was a sudden wake-up call.
Marko and the management’s goal is to avoid a similar scenario. The creation of Red Bull Powertrains, an internal structure dedicated to developing the new power units, represents the team’s most ambitious project in recent history. Alongside this, the collaboration with Ford on the electric component is expected to provide additional expertise in an area that will be critical in a grid increasingly dominated by manufacturer teams.
Verstappen at the center of the project
Beyond technical matters, there is a human factor Red Bull cannot ignore: managing Max Verstappen. The Dutch champion shares a deep bond with the team that goes beyond the contract. From his debut, Helmut Marko has been his main supporter, guiding his growth up to the 2021 world championship. However, top-tier drivers—Max certainly among them—need to feel involved in a winning project.
Although Verstappen has dismissed rumors of a premature exit, he has indicated that he expects concrete guarantees. The perfectionist driver engages deeply in technical development and wants the team to demonstrate its ability to navigate the 2026 regulatory revolution as effectively as it did in 2022.
Today, Red Bull has no doubts: there is no point in continuing to invest resources in keeping the 2025 car competitive; all efforts must be focused on 2026. This strategy leaves the current season partially exposed, potentially ceding further ground to McLaren and stirring internal dissatisfaction. It is a calculated, though painful, move. Neglecting development for the next-generation car could have even graver consequences.
Marko is unequivocal: the priority is the future. “Max sees how hard we are working. Our mission is to give him a car that convinces him to stay with us without hesitation. If we want to see him smile again, we must deliver a package worthy of his expectations,” he stressed.
A crossroads for the team’s history
Red Bull has already shown it can successfully navigate new regulatory cycles. The pre-turbo hybrid era, masterfully managed by Adrian Newey (whose absence is now deeply felt), brought four consecutive championships between 2010 and 2013. Then came the hybrid era, only fully mastered in the final stages of 2022. Now, 2026 looms as another critical turning point: the team’s ability to interpret the new regulations will determine not only its return to the top but also the future of its flagship driver.
In a Formula 1 where contract clauses can shift from formality to ticking time bombs, the only true guarantee remains competitiveness on track. Red Bull knows this well: securing Max Verstappen requires more than paper—it requires victory.
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