The competitiveness of the Austrian car
There is a general perception that the Milton Keynes team is the one to beat. Based on recent weekend analyses, this is only partially true. Often, as seen in Austin, the McLaren MCL39 showed more raw pace over a single lap than the Austrian car. Therefore, Verstappen himself adds a critical factor, making a substantial difference on track.
Mexico is expected to present another weekend with closely matched performance. McLaren appears to have reached a performance plateau, while Red Bull has gained a clearer understanding of its car in recent races. These two teams have found a competitive advantage by shifting the areas of highest floor wear forward, allowing the car to run lower without encountering excessive plank wear. Both cars generate significant downforce, though they favor different types of corners. The Central American track demands several compromises, making optimal setup a crucial factor for the weekend.
Verstappen’s adaptability in Mexico
The first sector is dominated by the long start-finish straight and several medium-to-slow corners. Top speeds increasingly favor the Austrian car, which boasts excellent efficiency. Red Bull arrives in Mexico with a rear specification in line with other teams, while still being able to adjust angles to achieve more or less vertical force at the rear axle.
The second sector features a series of high-speed corners, including a small “snake” section where McLaren is expected to match the RB21’s performance. At Austin, this was not the case in Turn 1, as the MCL39 could not complete a full Sprint race lap, leaving insufficient data to lower the car to Red Bull’s level and likely losing some downforce in the process.
In the third sector, speeds drop again, with several areas requiring substantial longitudinal acceleration—a characteristic that Verstappen’s car has gradually improved throughout the season, delivering better mechanical grip. While Austin presented an especially bumpy floor, the RB21 handled it without major issues.
This does not mean that uneven surfaces are no longer a concern; rather, the team has learned to manage them better. Mexico features several bumps, particularly in sector two, and challenging curbs in Turn 1. Overall, unlike last year when balance issues were more pronounced, Red Bull’s cars should adapt very well.
RB21’s qualifying potential
Thermal balance throughout a lap is key to tire management at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. The goal remains to keep the tires as close as possible to the target temperature for the majority of the lap. From mid-season onward, Red Bull has frequently found strong qualifying pace, so we do not anticipate significant issues in this area.
Over the race distance, degradation is expected to be relatively low, based on last year’s data. This factor, consistent in recent races, again helps to narrow the performance gap with McLaren if needed. In Mexico, another challenge awaits, where Verstappen is expected to be a central figure in the fight for victory.
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