Max Verstappen is leaning on the weather. The 47-point lead over Lando Norris he brought to São Paulo remains a good safety net, but it’s the only guarantee he currently has, aside from the prospect of rain—a variable that could change everything. Perhaps for the first time, Max Verstappen is starting to fear losing hold of a championship he’d thought was practically secured by early autumn.
Red Bull is in trouble, and further proof came in the qualifying for the Brazilian GP’s sprint race, with the world champion finishing in fourth. The usual “front row miracle” didn’t happen this time, with the two McLaren cars and Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari proving too strong. Interlagos has always been one of Max’s hunting grounds, and in recent races, qualifying seemed to be where Red Bull regained competitiveness. But after the Interlagos sprint qualifying, the track has told a different story.
“In the first qualifying laps, I found myself bouncing over all the bumps,” Verstappen explained. “I think the resurfacing has made the drive worse! The track is extremely bumpy everywhere, and this isn’t good for our car. The bumps cost me a lot in lap time.” During free practice, several teams had to adjust their mechanics more than usual, adjusting heights and torsion bars to cope with unexpected issues caused by bumps that the new asphalt hasn’t smoothed out. Normally, Red Bull was the reference in terms of response speed in unplanned situations, but even here, things have changed since early summer.
“I don’t know what to expect tomorrow,” Max concluded. “Usually, if you’re off the pace in qualifying, you’re not very fast in the race either. We’ll see. There’s also the weather variable; it might rain, but that’s more likely on Sunday. And there, on the grid, I’ll also have a five-place penalty to serve.” Lando Norris won’t start from pole, but it changes little. Looking at the championship (even if Lando Norris doesn’t want to talk about it), he could chip away at the lead tomorrow. The trend is clearly in his favor, and he knows he has a chance to shift the pressure. So far, Norris has felt the world championship stress more, while Max Verstappen has managed to limit damage even when Lando Norris had the fastest car. But things could change after the Brazilian weekend.
On Friday in São Paulo, Red Bull (expected to perform well) fell short, and this could alter the scenario. Verstappen’s headache will worsen if the most feared scenario comes true: seeing the two Ferraris place themselves between him and the McLarens. So far, Ferrari has indirectly been Max’s ally by taking valuable points from Norris, but if McLaren proves faster on race pace, Max Verstappen risks ending up behind four cars, with Norris leading.
The weekend is still long; after the Sprint, engineers can still adjust setups, but team morale isn’t high. “We’re too slow,” Helmut Marko commented bluntly. “We’re losing too much to McLaren in turns 4 and 9, and we have various problems starting with the bumpy track, which doesn’t help us. We’ve also seen that when Max uses the curbs, the car starts bouncing. The comparison with McLaren is becoming very difficult. Right now, I’d say it’s impossible for us to keep their pace. Maybe Ferrari could be within reach, at least in the sprint, but that remains to be seen.” – the Red Bull advisor concluded.
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