The 2024 F1 season began with Red Bull’s overwhelming dominance. Max Verstappen and the RB20 appeared unbeatable, securing seven wins in the first ten races. This promising start suggested another triumphant campaign for the Austrian team. However, mid-season, a dramatic drop in performance emerged. The once-invincible car began to show clear limitations, particularly in its development.
This downturn coincided with the departure of Adrian Newey (and others), a pivotal figure at Red Bull for the past two decades. Although announced in May and anticipated earlier, his exit inevitably left a difficult void to fill. This came after a blistering start to 2024, amidst the “Horner affair” and a series of challenges that forced the team into a season filled with obstacles on and off the track.
Despite these difficulties, Max Verstappen has virtually secured his fourth consecutive world title. The Dutchman, a standout talent even during challenging moments, managed to minimize setbacks and maintain a significant lead over his closest rival, Lando Norris. This achievement comes despite some controversial moves throughout the season.
In the Constructors’ Championship, however, the situation is far more uncertain. Ferrari and McLaren, benefiting from excellent development work and greater consistency, have closed the gap on Red Bull. Both teams also enjoy the advantage of having two high-performing drivers—something Milton Keynes has struggled with for nearly two years due to Sergio Perez’s poor results. Ferrari and McLaren are now aiming to deal Red Bull its first defeat in this regulatory era.
Red Bull: The unexpected chase of Ferrari and McLaren
Many questions hover over Red Bull’s environment. After years of unchallenged dominance, the Austrian team now faces a starkly different reality: the RB20 has fallen short of expectations for various reasons, and its performance has become inconsistent from race to race. Could the “T-Tray” issue play a role? It’s hard to say, especially given reports of an agreement with the FIA that is unlikely to be disclosed. Regardless, it signals at least a period of hesitation for the reigning champions.
“Everyone will be nervous,” said Red Bull’s Chief Engineer Paul Monaghan regarding 2025. “We know what we want from next year’s car, but the complexity of the 2026 regulations and this year’s challenges make everything more complicated.” Monaghan emphasized the difficulties posed by the new rules and the need to regain ground on rivals. Ferrari and McLaren have shown a stronger pace, pushing the RB20 to third place in the Constructors’ standings.
Monaghan’s comments highlight the intricacy of the situation. Red Bull faces a dual challenge: developing a competitive car for 2025 while preparing for the major regulatory changes in 2026. “Resource allocation will be key. We want to fight for both titles in 2025, but we know it will be a tough battle,” added the British engineer from Thenford. He stressed that the decision to focus more on the current car’s development or on future projects will significantly impact short- and long-term results.
Another crucial factor is resource management. As 2026 approaches, all teams will feel the temptation to allocate increasing portions of their budgets to the development of new cars. Red Bull, like its competitors, must strike the right balance between pursuing the 2025 championship and laying the groundwork for the future. Despite these challenges, Max Verstappen remains firmly in the running for the Drivers’ title.
The most significant difficulty may lie in catching up to McLaren and Ferrari—an effort that will inevitably clash with the focus on 2026. Starting from the lead would have been one thing; chasing is another. Perhaps Red Bull did not expect, at this point in the 2024 season, to lose their dominant position, especially after their early-year performances. Are compromises necessary? Possibly more than we think. The road ahead is steeper than anticipated.
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