From Monza to Austin, it has almost felt like watching a completely different Formula 1 championship, with Red Bull and Max Verstappen consistently ahead of McLaren — a team that, until the Dutch Grand Prix, was clearly the technical benchmark of the season. However, the reality is more complex and far less narrative-driven. The MCL39 has not been technically surpassed by the RB21. At least, that’s the view from Milton Keynes. McLaren’s car remains, overall, the strongest machine on the grid, yet some of its shortcomings now carry a greater impact than before.
McLaren remains strong, but Saturday performance is crucial
The MCL39 is still exceptionally strong in race pace, but in this final year of ground-effect cars, starting at the front is vital. This is especially true in the second half of the season, as teams evolve their cars and learn how to manage tires more effectively in races. To provide context, with five races remaining, McLaren and Max Verstappen have each claimed seven pole positions. In the last five events, the driver starting from pole has won every race. Following another car has become a frustrating exercise, as aerodynamic losses are now significant, tire temperatures rise quickly, and the operating window closes more rapidly. Red Bull was already effective in qualifying earlier in the season, but previously McLaren could offset this with superior race pace and flawless tire management. Today, that gap has nearly closed. The distance between McLaren and Red Bull still tends to widen during stints, but while at the start of the year this happened within a few laps, now it only appears in the final part of a stint.
Red Bull solves key limitations
It’s important to note that McLaren hasn’t deteriorated; rather, Red Bull has addressed its main weaknesses. The Milton Keynes team has found a better balance for the RB21 and, crucially, a degree of stability (though not perfection) in rear tire thermal behavior. Updates to the floor and front wing (now more flexible at the outer edges) between Monza and Singapore, as well as significant summer improvements in cornering behavior, have substantially reduced rear tire overheating. The result? Verstappen can push longer without excessive degradation, and his consistency is now closer to that of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. A Red Bull engineer highlighted how Norris, despite following Charles Leclerc for over 20 laps and overheating his tires, managed to be faster in the latter part of the first stint. According to the engineer, Verstappen was not managing his pace because he was approaching a pit stop. Simply put, the RB21 had worn its tires, while the McLaren still had more grip, although it was too late to capitalize.
Wache & Co narrow the technical gap, Verstappen provides the rest
At Milton Keynes, the belief remains that the MCL39 is still generally more efficient, particularly through medium-speed corners, yet recent races suggest the difference between the two cars is minimal. When performance margins are mere tenths of a second, a single execution error can change the outcome — for either team. Singapore and Austin demonstrated this perfectly: imperfect qualifying, Piastri’s Sprint error, and insufficient data for a more aggressive MCL39 setup turned potential victories into second-place finishes for Norris. Red Bull also believes Norris could have won the Austin Grand Prix if he had started on pole or if Leclerc had not overtaken him at the start using the softer tire strategy.
McLaren has not lost its strength and will continue to demonstrate it through the season’s end. However, Milton Keynes is confident it can now put more pressure on a team and two drivers less experienced in managing critical moments. This is partly thanks to the latest RB21 upgrades. While the two leading teams appear closer in race pace, the difference comes down to who can start at the front — and this is where Max Verstappen frequently works his magic. For the four-time world champion, the only miracle that matters now is winning a championship that, after the Dutch Grand Prix, seemed destined to be a duel between the McLaren drivers.
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