Mercedes did not contend for much in 2024. The feverish anticipation for the next F1 season has already begun, fueled by a rarely so dramatic driver market. Regulatory continuity from a technical standpoint promises an even more exciting season than the one just concluded. This hope is bolstered by another factor: starting in January, as mandated by the FIA, all teams can begin designing their 2026 cars in line with the new technical regulations.
This represents a massive challenge for designers, who will seek to gain a competitive edge from a still-evolving framework that could lend itself to imaginative interpretations of grey areas. Inevitably, 2025 technical projects will be partially sacrificed at the altar of yet another technical revolution—one undoubtedly least desired by fans, especially when performance convergence is no longer a far-off dream. For this reason, teams have continued developing their current cars through the end of the season, as next year’s cars are expected to differ little from the current ones.
Teams now have a strong understanding of their cars. Consider the updates introduced on the Alpine A524, many of which were designed with next year’s car in mind. Therefore, teams finishing the season in good shape are unlikely to change the aero-mechanical philosophy of their technical projects. Based on this, McLaren and Ferrari can reasonably look to the next campaign with confidence. Conversely, Red Bull remains a significant question mark.
Until Qatar, the RB20 seemed like an “old boot” incapable of competing for victory. But under the lights of Losail, Adrian Newey’s latest creation shone once again. Even in Abu Dhabi, the Austrian car appeared to have regained its early-season brilliance, though its potential was nullified by the Turn 1 collision between Verstappen and Piastri. Red Bull’s late resurgence shows that their technical project still has untapped potential and could serve as a strong foundation for the RB21. Among the top teams, Mercedes is the one looking toward 2025 with the least optimism.
F1, Mercedes: Few Certainties in a Mixed End to the Season
The Mercedes W15 has proven to be the queen of cold conditions, perhaps the most competitive car in frigid environments, as evidenced by its one-two finish in Las Vegas. However, in the second half of the season—particularly the final 12 races—George Russell and Lewis Hamilton scored just over half the points of Charles Leclerc, who led this segment with a total of 206 points. These figures, given the extended timeframe, cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence.
Despite four wins—their best result since 2021—Toto Wolff’s F1 team never contended for the Constructors’ Championship. Three years on, the Brackley engineers still struggle to predict the behavior of their ground-effect cars. Among the leading teams, Mercedes appears most eager to move past the current technical regulations. Given their limited technical and human certainties, the 2025 season for the Silver Arrows could be a transitional year. Another factor is the human element, despite the evident potential of Kimi Antonelli and George Russell’s speed.
On paper, Mercedes’ 2025 lineup might be less fruitful than the one featuring Lewis Hamilton and the young Englishman, who will assume the role of team leader. This new responsibility for George Russell, originally from King’s Lynn and the GPDA director, will make him the clear number one within a team that, until last Sunday, still regarded the seven-time world champion as its guiding star. All that remains is to wait and see what will truly unfold.
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