There is some uncertainty at Mercedes in F1, but not regarding the car they are set to race in the 2024 season. Rather, it is a general uncertainty, as described by former Ferrari engineer and current Mercedes technical director James Allison, who believes the situation after testing remains unclear. On track, the W16 performed well—a predictable, highly reliable car that showed no signs of issues. This was already a crucial step forward after years in which pre-season testing often hinted at challenging campaigns.
Mercedes raises the bar for 2025
The Brackley team has gained significant experience since 2022 when the regulations introduced the wing car era. They have learned how to navigate this context and, most importantly, what mistakes to avoid when developing a car that may be ambitious and full of potential but difficult to translate into on-track performance. The tests went better than expected. This does not mean Mercedes is getting ahead of itself, but the team has decided to raise its targets for the upcoming championship, setting a rather ambitious goal.
The objective is clear, even if somewhat straightforward: to improve on last season’s results by winning more races. Based on the information we have gathered, Mercedes aims to double its victories compared to the previous season. Given its 2024 stats, this means the goal for 2025 is to win at least eight races—essentially triumphing in one-third of the calendar. Achieving this would likely put them in contention for both world titles.
F1, strong understanding of the W16
Mercedes’ decision to set higher goals is largely based on the data collected during the three days of testing in Bahrain, where, as mentioned, things ran much more smoothly than in recent years. Identifying key areas for improvement has been crucial for the team. Updating the simulator with real track data, much like Ferrari has done, will help unlock more potential from the car ahead of Melbourne. The feedback obtained so far has been very positive.
The German team has reason to be optimistic, though it remains focused on preparing for the opening weekend of the 2025 season. The multiple-time world champions are positioning themselves among the frontrunners, confident they can fight at the top in Australia. Their technical progress is backed by evidence, which is the best news they could have hoped for after testing in the Middle East. However, at this stage, no team has a clear idea of their rivals’ true performance, including Mercedes, which is waiting to see where it stands.
Lewis Hamilton vs George Russell
To complete the analysis, we turn to telemetry—a crucial tool for studying an F1 car’s characteristics. It is important to note that the lap times analyzed were set at different times of the day: Hamilton’s at 14:56 and Russell’s at 16:51, both on Friday. This detail is significant because track conditions varied, with lower evening temperatures and different levels of rubber on the asphalt.
From the sector times, we see that Hamilton lost ground primarily in Sector 1 (0.222s) and Sector 3 (0.373s). Between Turns 1 and 3, Lewis had to lift off the throttle due to a slight snap, preventing him from going full-throttle as Russell did. This cost him dearly, as his top speed on the straight leading to Turn 4 was lower. In the middle sector, there were no major differences, but in Sector 3, some key distinctions emerged between the former teammates.
Two teams with the same ambitions
In the final sector, Lewis Hamilton’s biggest time loss occurred in Turn 13, where the No. 44 Ferrari suffered from excessive rotation. This forced him to stay on the brakes longer to position the car correctly, resulting in another throttle delay. As previously noted, such delays lead to significant time losses on the next straight. This is evident in the speed graph, where George Russell’s blue line is clearly above Hamilton’s red one.
Considering the different run programs and environmental variations, it was interesting to analyze the performance of these cars. Based on their track behavior, the initial impression is that Ferrari and Mercedes are on a very similar level. The key question now is which team will best address their weaknesses observed in Sakhir and bring the strongest package to Australia. The first competitive weekend will provide factual feedback on where these F1 teams truly stand.
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