Twenty-four hours of testing were not enough to define clear technical hierarchies. Due to the unprecedented conditions encountered in Sakhir, as well as the specific characteristics of the track and asphalt, the scenario that will unfold at the Australian Grand Prix is not yet entirely predictable.
However, three days of testing have helped to determine who has started the season with the right pace and who has left Bahrain aware of urgent work that must be completed before shipping technical equipment to Melbourne.
Four teams aligned with pre-test expectations. Ferrari, Mercedes, Racing Bulls, and Haas obviously have a technical agenda to pursue, but the expected performance level was confirmed.
For Ferrari, the coming days will be important for verifying some drivability issues, which currently seem to be the top priority, but overall, the project has started well. The same applies to Mercedes, which has reaffirmed itself in the top four with yet-unknown margins for improvement, while Racing Bulls and Haas placed themselves where they were expected to be before testing began. The other six teams, positively or negatively, defied the expectations formed over the winter break.
McLaren, Williams, and Alpine take the first steps in the right direction Years ago, they would have been labeled as “promoted,” but since the championship now consists of 24 Grands Prix, it is better to speak of a brilliant first step. McLaren has set the benchmark for everyone—and placed it quite high.
One could argue that this is not surprising, given that they are the reigning world champions, but what supports the perception that it is significant was the reaction from rivals when Lando Norris completed a stellar race simulation on Thursday afternoon. The paddock was unprepared for such a sequence of fast laps, triggering the usual controversy that arises when a team seems to take off—this time, with a déjà vu of the mini-DRS debate.
The MCL39 was under close scrutiny due to its innovations (some of which were considered risky by rival engineers), but based on what was seen in Sakhir, there do not appear to be any major drawbacks.
Team principal Andrea Stella was quick to point out that the performance seen in Bahrain does not guarantee success at Albert Park, where conditions will be quite different. However, no other team can take away McLaren’s status as the favorite, and until the next verdicts arrive in Australia, the Woking squad will sit at the top of the technical hierarchy.
Alpine’s first steps were also surprisingly positive. The good news for the team is that its pace in Bahrain was much closer to the level seen at the end of last season than to that of twelve months ago when the disappointing A524 debuted.
The final phases of 2024 showcased a team capable of contending for the title of “best of the rest,” and that momentum appears to have been maintained. Gasly and Doohan completed three days with many positive signs, and they head to Melbourne aiming for Q3 based on solid evidence.
According to Sakhir’s results, Alpine should be competing with Williams for the final two points-scoring positions. However, there is an asterisk over the British team that only the Melbourne weekend can clarify. Carlos Sainz had the satisfaction of leaving Bahrain with the fastest overall time, and Alexander Albon also showed great speed on the final afternoon.
However, the long runs suggested a different hierarchy, raising suspicions that their fast lap performances were achieved with minimal weight and a power unit in an aggressive, non-conservative mode. Nevertheless, there is no denying that the start of the season has been very different from last year. Every change has reinforced a positive trend, and even the team’s internal atmosphere is nothing like it was in 2024.
Red Bull, Sauber, and Aston Martin—more doubts than certainties First evaluation. When the RB21 was unveiled, there was speculation that Milton Keynes’ engineers would introduce its true aerodynamic configuration at the Sakhir tests. In reality, what was seen in Bahrain did not significantly differ from the launch version—at least on the surface.
On the final day of testing, a new front wing and a new floor were introduced, but the latter was quickly removed after a few laps by Verstappen, as the results were far from satisfactory. The extensive verification work, which saw engineers swap multiple wing versions on the car, yielded little. Max managed a decent lap in the qualifying simulation, but it is not yet the Red Bull that was expected.
The team will be closely watched in Melbourne. Within the paddock, opinions are split—some see the RB21’s initial steps very negatively, while others are confident in the ability of Pierre Waché’s technical team to respond effectively.
There is consensus, however, on Aston Martin and Sauber. The “Green Machine” seen in Sakhir is worlds apart from the car that, exactly two years ago, had the entire field worried during Bahrain testing. Now, even the goal of being the “best of the rest” is in serious jeopardy, confirming the trend observed in the final third of the 2024 season.
One wonders what atmosphere Adrian Newey will find when he arrives at the Silverstone headquarters on Monday morning to begin his collaboration with the team. Will there be a willingness to invest in the ARM25 project, or will it become a car already doomed before the season even starts? On one hand, there is a project that, at best, may only make occasional top-10 appearances. On the other, there is a highly ambitious 2026 program. Any bets on which direction “Genius” will take?
A similar situation exists at Sauber. Their debut was far from ideal, with Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto struggling significantly with the car, confirming that their starting point appears to be much the same as where they finished last season.
In this case, the road ahead for the C45 project is even steeper than for the Aston Martin ARM25. In addition to dealing with the energy demands of the 2026 project (which will see the debut of Audi’s first F1 car), the team is engaged in a significant restructuring phase—something Aston Martin is completing with its new wind tunnel.
It is too early to say whether Sauber will be the “Cinderella” of the championship. Last season’s story suggests caution—after all, Alpine managed to climb from the back row in the early part of the season to the podium in Brazil. However, achieving a major turnaround will not be easy for the engineers. As mentioned, much will depend on the priorities set between Hinwil and Ingolstadt.
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