McLaren facing its most difficult moment of the F1 season
McLaren is currently experiencing the most complicated period of its 2025 Formula 1 campaign. The races at Monza and Baku have revealed that even the highly competitive MCL39 has weaknesses. Cold weather conditions and low downforce setups have hurt the car’s tire management and cooling, exposing limitations that were less visible earlier in the season. While the trend could be reversed at the Singapore Grand Prix, it is not impossible that the team will face more difficulties before the final checkered flag in Abu Dhabi.
Low downforce and cold conditions disrupt the MCL39
The last two races have not matched the level of performance McLaren had consistently shown up to Zandvoort. At Monza, both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri struggled mainly because Max Verstappen and Red Bull were untouchable. In Baku, however, the limitations of the MCL39 became more apparent, combining both driver errors and technical difficulties related to weather and the car’s aerodynamic setup.
In Italy, McLaren could not rely on its usual strength in tire management, because degradation was almost nonexistent. The MCL39 also showed good aerodynamic efficiency but not exceptional levels, which meant the team was constantly losing out on straight-line speed compared to Max Verstappen. On tracks where the balance favors Red Bull, Norris and Piastri also find it harder to bring the tires into the right temperature window, which immediately affects grip and overall pace.
At Monza, this factor was less damaging because of warmer air temperatures and a track layout with fewer corners requiring mechanical grip. In Azerbaijan, however, the colder conditions and the more technically demanding street layout placed McLaren under real stress. The papaya-colored cars were not particularly strong on the straights, and mechanical grip was noticeably below the usual excellent level.
The limits of the MCL39
In Singapore, these types of issues should disappear. The Marina Bay circuit suits the natural characteristics of the MCL39, with high humidity, warm conditions, and medium-to-high downforce setups all working in McLaren’s favor. The high moisture content in the air reduces the proportion of dry fluid, making it harder to extract heat through intercoolers. But for McLaren, this could be less of a problem. The MCL39 will be able to use smaller cooling openings in the engine cover, improving aerodynamic efficiency.
Tire management will also be more favorable. In hotter and more demanding lateral load conditions, degradation once again becomes an important factor. This is an area where McLaren has excelled throughout the season, and the Singapore Grand Prix will put that advantage back at the center of the race weekend. The next round should therefore allow McLaren to show its strengths again, after the disappointments of Monza and Baku.
However, such performance superiority cannot be taken for granted at every upcoming venue. In Qatar and Abu Dhabi, both the weather conditions and the circuit layouts are expected to benefit McLaren. On the other hand, the three American rounds could expose the car’s weaknesses once more. Among them, the toughest challenge is likely to be Las Vegas, where cold weather and low downforce requirements will dominate the setup approach.
Las Vegas and Austin could be critical tests
The positive aspect for Zak Brown and Andrea Stella is that the team now has a wealth of data collected from Monza and Baku. This information could help McLaren fine-tune a setup that limits damage compared to Red Bull, which remains the benchmark in such conditions. At the Circuit of the Americas in Texas, the MCL39 will need to build its performance in the first sector of the lap, where aerodynamic grip plays a greater role.
The very long back straight that characterizes the second and third sectors could be problematic, putting McLaren at a disadvantage. Even so, on layouts that mix different cornering styles, the MCL39 tends to find a stronger technical compromise to maximize lap time. This is thanks to the car’s flexibility, which allows engineers to adapt the setup effectively across different sections of the track.
As for the Mexican Grand Prix, McLaren has every reason to expect a competitive weekend. The thin air at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez forces teams into high-downforce setups, which will help the MCL39 both with tire thermal management and overall balance. The rarefied atmosphere also improves the thermal efficiency of the Mercedes power unit, reducing some of the weaknesses linked to aerodynamic efficiency. This could make Mexico one of McLaren’s strongest races before the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
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