McLaren expected to return to the top in Singapore: why Monza and Baku were so challenging. McLaren struggled at Monza and Baku due to low temperatures and low-downforce setups.

The papaya team struggles at Monza and Baku

In the last two Grand Prix, McLaren could not fully exploit its strengths: excellent cooling capabilities and impeccable tyre management. At both Monza and Baku, the MCL39s were forced to contend with Red Bull’s superior performance, particularly Max Verstappen, while running at cooler temperatures and in very low-downforce configurations.

Singapore looms as a key test

Following the results at Monza and especially Baku, McLaren arrives in Singapore under close scrutiny. While this may seem paradoxical given that the papaya team has 623 points in the Constructors’ Championship compared to Mercedes’ 290 (the next-best competitor), the curiosity is justified by the lackluster performance in Azerbaijan. Lando Norris’ race, in particular, was surprising—and not in a positive way—finishing seventh on the grid and seventh at the flag after 51 laps without a single notable move.

Context: comparing teams and performance

As is standard in Formula 1, a team’s technical form is closely tied to that of its rivals. When Red Bull confirms a significant step forward, it inevitably casts the MCL39 in a different light, even though McLaren remains the technical benchmark for much of the paddock.

Looking ahead to Singapore, however, everything suggests a return to the form seen up until the Dutch Grand Prix, with the Norris-Piastri duo expected to fight for front-row positions and the top two podium spots.

Understanding the Baku performance

The reasons for this optimism come from analyzing the disappointing Baku race. McLaren’s car is extremely well-balanced, with two major strengths: outstanding cooling capacity and impeccable tyre management.

In Azerbaijan, unusually low track temperatures and minimal tyre degradation nullified McLaren’s best weapons. Additionally, the lack of high-speed corners and the need for a low-downforce setup perfectly suited Red Bull, compounding the challenge for the MCL39.

Singapore promises a different scenario

At Marina Bay, conditions will be completely different. The wings used at Monza and Baku will be left behind, and the cars will return to high-downforce configurations similar to those used at the Hungaroring, where Verstappen finished in a lowly ninth place.

McLaren has been carefully observing Red Bull’s recent progress. “They have confirmed they have a better car,” reiterated Andrea Stella. “The new floor has brought improvements in several areas, and I believe they have set up their car differently than before. They have become serious competitors on every track.”

A cautious approach is likely rule number one in a team principal’s handbook. It is understandable that Andrea Stella wants to throw the spotlight back onto Red Bull. However, if Red Bull manages to perform exceptionally at Marina Bay, it would be remarkable, as it would nullify another key advantage of the MCL39—possibly its greatest.

Why McLaren thrives in heat

Singapore’s high temperatures, despite running after sunset, place significant stress on the tyres. This environment suits McLaren perfectly, as no other team has managed to challenge them effectively in hot conditions so far.

Even with differing strategies and spending the first half of the race behind Charles Leclerc, in Budapest the two MCL39s finished with over twenty seconds ahead of George Russell and more than thirty seconds ahead of Ferrari’s number 16—a class apart.

Outlook and expectations

Two months on, it seems unlikely that Red Bull could have recovered so much on areas that were traditionally weak points for the RB21. Should Max Verstappen claim the top step of the podium in Singapore, McLaren’s concern would be justified. But in this instance, it is very probable that Andrea Stella secretly hopes he is wrong.