If it rains, Verstappen could be unstoppable – but McLaren look lightning fast
Max Verstappen’s hopes for a comeback at Interlagos are pinned on an approaching extratropical cyclone forming over southern Brazil. Weather forecasts suggest that intense rain and winds of up to 80 km/h could hit São Paulo on Saturday, conditions that might offer the reigning world champion his only real chance to challenge the dominant McLarens. On a dry track, the British team once again proved untouchable, emerging from Friday’s running with two key certainties.
Andrea Stella’s predictions turned out to be accurate – the Interlagos layout perfectly suits the MCL39, and the stopwatch confirmed it. Another solid confirmation came from the performances of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. In the days leading up to the weekend, much was said about a revitalized Piastri, an impression reinforced by his strong pace in practice. However, once qualifying began, Norris reminded everyone why he has been one of the most consistent drivers in recent months. He set the pace early in Q1 and later delivered a flawless lap in Q3 to underline his dominance.
Norris did not have an ideal start to the weekend, as he requested major setup adjustments during the only hour of free practice. Those changes paid off when it mattered, resulting in an impressive lap during Q1. Piastri was close behind in third place, just 0.185 seconds off, though he was frustrated with himself after making a small error at Turn 1 during his flying lap. With track temperatures dropping sharply, tire warm-up became more difficult, leading to less grip than expected through the opening corner and a slight loss of trajectory.
These are only small mistakes, but at this stage of the season, every detail can influence the outcome of the championship. For the sprint race, Piastri will also have to contend with Kimi Antonelli, who impressed everyone by qualifying second on a circuit he had never raced on before. George Russell, meanwhile, had a messy Q3 with two mistakes on his final lap, although Mercedes still showed good form at a circuit that has traditionally suited their car.
Attention now turns to Verstappen. The Red Bull driver will start from sixth place, sharing the third row with Fernando Alonso. His hopes of salvaging a difficult situation depend almost entirely on the arrival of rain. In dry conditions, Red Bull’s limitations were clear: Verstappen was only twelfth in the second sector time charts. “We’re missing grip in the middle part of the lap,” Max said after the session. “I can’t get the car to rotate properly, and there are also a lot of vibrations. I don’t know why, but something isn’t working right.”
If the weather remains dry, it could be “game over” for Max Verstappen and Red Bull in terms of keeping their championship hopes alive. The arrival of rain would give Max a fighting chance — not because of any major technical edge, but because of his exceptional skill in wet conditions. Between the end of the sprint and the start of qualifying, Red Bull engineers will have one last opportunity to make changes to the car’s setup in a bid to close the gap to McLaren.
Things went far worse for Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton failed to reach Q3, while Charles Leclerc managed only eighth, leaving both drivers frustrated after a session that didn’t meet expectations. “The feeling isn’t bad, but we’re slow,” Leclerc admitted, summarizing Ferrari’s ongoing struggle. Like Red Bull, the Scuderia’s main issues were concentrated in the middle sector of the circuit.
Lewis Hamilton spun during free practice, while Charles Leclerc made a similar mistake in qualifying, confirming that the SF-25 remains unpredictable when it loses grip. It’s worrying news for Ferrari, especially considering Mercedes’ strong form at Interlagos. With the fight for second place in the Constructors’ Championship heating up, Ferrari faces yet another uphill battle heading into the Brazilian sprint weekend.
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