Formula 1 is about to return to the track after a month-long break, resembling the calm before the storm, with a final sprint of six Grands Prix that will determine the world titles. It’s hard to predict the outcome of the battle between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, given the close performance gap between the leading teams, which emphasizes the human factor and luck. Moreover, the balance of power will largely depend on the updates expected in Austin. Red Bull is tasked with addressing the balance issues of the RB20, while McLaren cannot afford any missteps in development, and Ferrari could also become a consistent contender for victory. Regardless, if the dynamics of the last two months continue until the end of the season, the remaining six tracks offer Lando Norris a chance to pursue his title dream.
Austin (Sprint)
The United States Grand Prix could see Red Bull struggling more compared to the last two events, on a highly varied track with different types of corners that may exacerbate the RB20’s balance issues. The Sprint format further complicates things for the reigning champions, with only one practice session to fine-tune the setup. There’s a risk that Red Bull could find itself as the third-best team in Texas.
McLaren, on the other hand, starts as the favorite, with a car that’s competitive in all conditions. However, Ferrari is also a serious threat, having been very convincing over the past month despite the specific track characteristics. The Scuderia has a good interpretation of the Texas circuit but must prove that it has solved its porpoising issues, which could be problematic on a track full of fast corners and uneven surfaces that might trigger the annoying oscillations. Overall, if Verstappen finishes fifth behind McLaren and Ferrari, Norris could potentially close the gap by over 15 points between the Sprint and the Grand Prix, bringing the deficit in the standings to under 40 points.
Mexico City
The next race is harder to predict. The Mexican circuit also offers a variety of corners and requires high downforce configurations due to the thin air at high altitude, which is not Red Bull’s strong suit. At 2,000 meters above sea level, reliability could also be an issue for the reigning champions, with the RB20 prone to overheating. McLaren, meanwhile, doesn’t have a great track record in Mexico City. The MCL38 is still a bit too aggressive on the front tires, a crucial area in Mexico where Ferrari seems more convincing. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it seems that in Central America, any of the top teams could realistically aim for victory.
São Paulo (Sprint)
Brazil’s circuit is high downforce, rich in medium-to-low speed corners and long sweeping turns, particularly rewarding for rear-end stability and traction. McLaren has another chance to be the leading team for the weekend, having dominated similar contexts in Budapest, Zandvoort, and Singapore. Red Bull, meanwhile, will once again face balance issues during the compressed Sprint weekend, but Max Verstappen can still aim to be the best of the rest. Ferrari, on paper, is slightly behind, as medium-speed, long corners have been its Achilles’ heel for much of the season. Even if Ferrari is the third-best team, Lando Norris could still chip away another 8-12 points from Verstappen depending on the results, including his teammate’s position.
Las Vegas
The Nevada race is perhaps the most favorable for a Ferrari return to victory, as they were already competitive in the 2023 edition. The SF-24’s strength in 90-degree slow corners remains a major asset, and it also handles tire graining well, a likely issue in the cold local temperatures. However, the successes in Baku and Singapore show that street circuits are no longer a weak spot for McLaren, with Red Bull also theoretically in contention, using the circuit’s uniform corners to find the right balance. The weekend looks open to any outcome.
Qatar (Sprint)
At Lusail, McLaren could once again be the top team, provided they manage the front tires well through Qatar’s long sweeping turns. Ferrari faces its own demons with bouncing, a recent lack of front-end downforce, and cornering stability, while Red Bull continues its usual struggle for balance, especially on a high-downforce track and in a Sprint weekend. A Norris victory could cut the gap by another 8-20 points, depending on where Verstappen finishes, likely between second and fifth.
Abu Dhabi
The season finale takes place on a balanced circuit, with corners that fall within the medium-low speed range. On paper, McLaren has a slight edge, but the recent Ferrari form would make them competitive, with Red Bull not far behind. Norris would thus have the opportunity to claw back even more potentially decisive points, with the added pressure of a title-deciding race.
The overall picture
It’s clear that the outcome of the championship won’t solely depend on the cars, with the performance levels very close and constantly evolving based on the effectiveness of upcoming updates. Nonetheless, the impression is that the next race in Austin could already be crucial. If Lando Norris were to win both races, he could recover another 19 points, reducing his deficit to just 33 points, with momentum fully on his side.
Brazil and Qatar appear to be two more must-win opportunities for the Englishman, with the potential to cut the gap to under 10 points, depending also on Ferrari’s competitiveness. Max Verstappen, therefore, is tasked with damage control, with the imperative to stay ahead of his rival on the less challenging tracks like Las Vegas and Mexico City. Even without any surprises, it’s not unrealistic to think that the championship could be decided at the final race in Abu Dhabi.
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