The use of simulation technology has given Formula 1 teams a major advantage, allowing them to make enormous progress despite the strict limits on track testing. However, like every tool, a simulator is only as useful as the information put into it. Mercedes experienced that reality at Spa-Francorchamps, correcting an inaccurate grip estimate between Friday’s sessions to transform Kimi Antonelli’s performance from sixth in FP1 to fastest in FP2.
Kimi Antonelli ended the opening practice session more than half a second behind leader Max Verstappen, while George Russell was eighth and almost nine tenths adrift. Two and a half hours later, Kimi Antonelli led FP2 by two tenths from Lando Norris and by almost half a second from Max Verstappen, after Mercedes recovered more than a second against its direct rivals.
Mercedes simulator correction changes Spa setup direction
The turnaround came after Mercedes analysed what had gone wrong in FP1. One of the many parameters used by the team’s simulation software is a coefficient related to the asphalt’s grip level, which is used to estimate the available adhesion. Mercedes had overestimated that figure before the weekend, expecting the cars to be capable of lapping in the 1m44s during the first practice session.
The circuit presented a very different reality. Grip was significantly lower than anticipated, as shown by Max Verstappen’s session-leading time of 1m47.070. That lap was considerably slower than Mercedes’ initial expectation and meant that the settings chosen from the team’s pre-event simulations were poorly suited to the real track conditions.
As a result, Kimi Antonelli and George Russell were left with a lack of aerodynamic load and inefficient energy management in FP1. The early difficulties were particularly notable given the scale of Mercedes’ development work at Spa, where the team has introduced a major aerodynamic update ahead of Monza and Las Vegas.
Mercedes’ engineers used the two-hour break between practice sessions to identify and resolve the problem. Once the grip-related parameter had been corrected, the team’s aerodynamic-load calculations also became much closer to the reality of the circuit. The effect was immediate: on Kimi Antonelli’s first flying lap in FP2, the Italian was seven tenths faster than he had been in the previous session.
Kimi Antonelli explains Mercedes’ radical FP2 change
“We made a radical change to the car,” Kimi Antonelli confirmed. “In FP1 we had some problems and struggled much more than expected. I cannot go into too much detail, but I suffered a lot from the lack of grip and, as a consequence, I did not have a good feeling with the car.”
The result was the fastest time of the day for Kimi Antonelli and encouraging early indications from the few laps completed in race configuration. The long-run programme was interrupted by Pierre Gasly’s off-track excursion, limiting the amount of representative data available to the teams. Even so, the Mercedes driver was not ready to consider his team comfortably ahead of McLaren and Red Bull.
“There is still work to do,” Kimi Antonelli added, “because McLaren is close, as is Red Bull. The feeling in the long run was also very positive, but the car changed considerably between the two sessions and overnight we will have to carry out further checks, so that we are ready for both qualifying and the race.”
The proximity of Lando Norris and McLaren is an especially important consideration for Mercedes. Lando Norris is already dealing with a significant setback ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, but Friday’s pace showed that McLaren remains a serious benchmark at Spa.
Mercedes remains cautious despite Kimi Antonelli’s pace
Kimi Antonelli’s cautious assessment was later echoed by Mercedes’ trackside engineering director, Andrew Shovlin. “There is certainly still something to improve,” Andrew Shovlin said. “Kimi confirmed that he did not complete a perfect lap and we will have to find something more, because we can see that the others are quite close.”
Andrew Shovlin also highlighted the importance of long-run pace, which could prove decisive in Sunday’s race. “As for the pace, especially in the long runs, everyone seems quite similar and this will probably be the factor that influences the finishing order on Sunday. I am optimistic that we can improve further, but we have to manage it.”
Mercedes had already acknowledged that Spa would be a major measure of its competitiveness, with Toto Wolff warning that the Belgian circuit would provide a significant test for Mercedes. Friday’s turnaround will give the team confidence, but the narrow gaps to McLaren and Red Bull mean the work is far from complete.
The wider Spa weekend has also been complicated by the FIA’s latest energy restrictions, which have increased the importance of accurate setup and deployment calculations. For more on that challenge, see the FIA’s revised energy rules for Spa.
Mercedes has demonstrated how quickly a Formula 1 weekend can change when a simulation model is corrected and the car is placed in a more suitable operating window. Yet, with Kimi Antonelli, Lando Norris and Max Verstappen closely matched on Friday, the team knows it must still find further improvement if it is to convert its impressive FP2 recovery into a strong qualifying and race result.
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