At Lusail, Mercedes is set to close out the battle for second in the Constructors’ Championship. During qualifying in Qatar, Toto Wolff’s team secured fourth place with George Russell, just eleven thousandths behind Max Verstappen, and fifth with Kimi Antonelli, who showed steady progress throughout the weekend. The Italian rookie sits approximately two-tenths behind his teammate, but starting from the clean side of the track, he could still be in a position to challenge for a podium.
Russell vs Antonelli: assessing the rookie’s confidence
The comparison between Russell and Antonelli highlights the Italian’s lower confidence in high-speed corners. For a rookie, the real challenge remains feeling the limits of the car. Born in 2006, Antonelli demonstrated notable progress over the weekend. During the Sprint qualifying, he admitted he had not found the limit: “I didn’t reach the limit in the fast corners, I was too conservative, I underestimated the grip.” High-speed corners have consistently been the areas where he loses the most compared to Russell, a gap largely due to his limited experience. Given that Lusail is packed with these types of corners, Antonelli closing to within two-tenths of the Englishman is a remarkable performance.
On his final attempt, the Bolognese driver made a mistake in Turn 1, losing rear grip in a snap that cost him a tenth in the opening sector. Observing his weekends so far, it is clear that Antonelli drives aggressively under braking, rapidly downshifting, a style that leverages engine braking. Occasionally, this can cause small rear lock-ups, likely responsible for the snap in Turn 1. He acknowledged that the minor error disrupted his rhythm and raised rear tire temperatures, an aspect that can significantly affect the rest of the lap: “Entering Turn 1 I pushed a bit more and just lost the rear. It was a significant moment that slowed my rhythm because I was already a tenth down from my reference. That’s not what you want after the first two corners. Aside from that, after the big slide, I struggled a bit more with the rear for the rest of the lap.” Almost every lap of the Sprint and standard qualifying shows that Antonelli loses most of the gap in the first sector at Turn 1.
Antonelli’s strengths in sector two
Despite the early setback, Antonelli posted an excellent second sector, second only to Oscar Piastri. Telemetry shows that he carries higher entry speed into the slowest corner, Turn 6, gaining roughly half a tenth over Russell. However, this advantage quickly disappears in Turn 7, a long corner where Russell manages to open the throttle earlier.
In the fast final sector, the triple right from Turns 12 to 14, Antonelli holds up well through the first two corners, although he lifts around 10% at Turn 13, unlike Russell, who maintains full throttle. At Turn 14, he loses roughly a tenth due to lower exit speed by approximately 7 km/h. In Turn 15, a left-hander, Antonelli drops another 5 km/h and half a tenth, which he partially recovers in the final corner.
Overall, Kimi Antonelli’s main speed deficit appears in the last sector, featuring corners over 250 km/h, where he understandably lacks rear confidence due to his limited experience. Throughout the season, he repeatedly noted that understanding the car’s limits is his biggest challenge, especially in qualifying. The Italian rated his performance positively compared to the previous day: “The lap was a bit chaotic, but overall it’s still P5, and there’s a lot to play for tomorrow.”
Looking ahead to the race, starting on the clean side should help Antonelli challenge his teammate: “I think third place could be possible if I have a good start and gain a couple of positions. Obviously, George and Max are really fast. McLaren has a slight advantage over everyone, so it will be really tough to battle them. And if I get clean air, maybe I can even maintain it. Easy to say now, hard to do tomorrow. So I really need to focus on the process: nail the start, position the car well, and then try to set a good rhythm.”
Russell satisfied with his performance
George Russell missed third place by just eleven thousandths but remained positive, confident he had maximized his potential: “A bit annoying, but I’m happy with my two laps. I’m not too frustrated because I think I got the most out of Q3. In a season, you probably get three perfect laps and maybe ten very good ones. This counts as one of the very good laps.”
Compared to the RB21, George Russell loses almost one-and-a-half tenths in fast corners, showing that the Milton Keynes car is second only to McLaren in this type of sector. The W16 proved solid in medium-speed corners, where it is roughly 0.15 seconds faster than Verstappen and almost 0.1 seconds quicker than Piastri. The small gap to the Dutch driver does not worry Russell, who focuses on the race and securing second in the Constructors’ Championship: “We have to remember our goal this weekend, which is P2 in the Constructors. Between me and Kimi, we’re in a good position to do that. The pace seemed strong in the Sprint; we were close to Lando and Max.”
George Russell is further reassured by Max Verstappen experiencing more tire degradation at the end of the Sprint, which could open a window for him or Antonelli in the podium fight: “I think Max had a bit more tire wear than us, from what we saw of his tires. Let’s see if we can make progress.”
Leave a Reply