Two themes defined Russell’s Japanese Grand Prix: the major difficulties in overtaking an opponent, with very few passes seen during the race, and the fact that this was also tied to a lack of significant tyre degradation, particularly with the hard compound.
The medium compound, the C2, was updated for this year, making it slightly softer to bring it closer to the C3, but the C1 remains a particularly hard tyre. Nothing unusual in itself, if it weren’t for the fact that part of the Suzuka circuit had been resurfaced, significantly improving grip precisely in the area most demanding on the tyres.
In fact, it’s true that cars are now running faster, which increases lateral forces, but the new asphalt is no longer so aggressive on the tyres, which has reduced degradation, allowing the C1 to comfortably complete a race stint without a significant drop-off. Not surprisingly, just like in China, the race ended up being a straightforward one-stop strategy.
This was also a point raised by George Russell in his analysis, as he felt the W16 had better pace than Ferrari over the weekend, but starting behind on a circuit where track position is crucial—given there is only one DRS zone—limited their potential.
“I believe that in the last two weekends the compounds were too hard given the resurfacing, and it was easy to make only one stop in both races, which took all the fun out of the strategy aspect. I hope we’ll be able to react as a sport because, as I said, everyone just finished what they started and there wasn’t enough variation due to high degradation,” said George Russell at the end of the race, highlighting how the lack of strategic variety had an impact.
Indeed, even though many teams had already predicted a one-stop race on Friday, the cooler temperatures and the solid performance of the C1 allowed everyone to push without major concerns. With higher degradation, there would have been a strategic factor that could have opened the door to more overtaking—on track or in the pits.
“I think we probably need to bring softer tyres, because the hard tyre could go on forever. We were pushing so hard, but we couldn’t overtake. I don’t think I would’ve had the pace of the top three, but I was matching Charles’ pace and it was impossible to pass.”
George Russell’s feeling is that Mercedes could have achieved more this weekend, especially if on Saturday they had delivered the car’s full potential and started ahead of Ferrari. Fourth place would have been a more “realistic” reflection of their performance. But of course, in F1, history isn’t made with “ifs,” and one must be able to put all the pieces together at the right moment.
“Instinctively, I think I could have stayed not far from the McLarens, but we can’t know that. Ultimately, you can only go as fast as the car in front. We saw that with McLaren, who were equal to Max Verstappen. If they’d been ahead, they could’ve been a tenth or even five tenths faster. I think realistically fourth place would’ve been the maximum this weekend. We finished fifth—not ideal, but not terrible.”
Mercedes remains second in the Constructors’ standings, even though Red Bull is suffering from the lack of points scored by Verstappen’s two teammates. Credit also goes to George Russell’s consistency who, aside from the unfulfilled fourth place in Suzuka, has secured two podiums by extracting the car’s potential and making the most of the opportunities gifted by rivals.
Consistency was an area George Russell wanted to improve this season, as in the last two years he has delivered top performances, but also had more anonymous weekends.
“In the last two years I haven’t been very consistent, and it’s something I wanted to work on. I don’t think we could’ve gotten a better result in the first two races. I think today fourth place would’ve been the right result, but we came home with fifth.”
Finally, Russell is aware that there’s still potential to unlock—not only from his Mercedes, but especially from McLaren, which he believes could make the difference in races where thermal tyre degradation will be even more important. The low temperatures, combined with the new asphalt in both China and Japan increasing grip, haven’t made tyre wear a key factor.
“I don’t think we’ve seen the best of McLaren yet. It’s been three cold races; last week we were wearing jackets. I think when we go to Bahrain with 35 degrees, to Saudi with 35 degrees, that’s when we’ll see those guys shine, and we know we’ve always been quite strong in cooler conditions, so I’m keeping my feet on the ground. It’s been three great races, but there are 21 to go. It’s still early.”
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