Mercedes is among the most consistent teams in the first part of this F1 season. The Brackley-based team has provided its drivers with a solid car, capable — at least with George Russell — of consistently finishing qualifying and races in the top five. On the other side, Kimi Antonelli’s learning curve continues to improve. This performance has allowed the team to secure a solid second place in the Constructors’ Championship.
A convincing start
The gap to Max Verstappen’s Red Bull is manageable, although the performance deficit to the two McLarens is quite significant, particularly in race trim. After six races, the W16 has shown excellent potential over a single lap, but race pace has often been compromised by various issues.
To address this, the Brackley squad is planning an upgrade package starting from the Imola Grand Prix, with the goal of improving tyre management during long runs. The European debut of the season is traditionally a time when teams refine performance with the introduction of the first upgrade packages.
There are two main reasons: the early races are spent understanding the car, and logistical factors play a role as teams determine their development path by late spring. Mercedes has identified what’s missing and where to improve on the W16, hoping to at least close some of the gap to McLaren, which is currently dominating the championship.
Mercedes: updates to reduce overheating in races
One of Mercedes’ weaknesses is race performance. Aside from Miami, where McLaren was clearly on another level, the car has generally lacked race pace due to insufficient thermal management of the rear end. Abnormal temperature increases reduce tyre grip, forcing the team to be conservative in managing tyre energy.
In the opening rounds, Mercedes only made minor tweaks to the car on two occasions: the first race in Australia after pre-season testing in Bahrain, and the most recent round in Miami. In Melbourne, changes were made to various aerodynamic elements of the German car: front suspension, floor, engine cover, inlet, beam wing, and rear wing.
The latter was further revised in Miami, aiming to increase the downforce generated by the central section while reducing drag from the outer sections and improving overall efficiency. At Imola, a significant upgrade package is expected, as James Allison mentioned post-race in Miami, with notable changes to the car’s geometry compared to what was seen especially in Melbourne.
An updated floor is expected, particularly in the side skirt and diffuser areas, along with a possible revision of the rear air intakes. These changes will indirectly affect the car’s thermal behavior, allowing drivers to push without constantly managing degradation. That, at least, is the goal for Mercedes’ engineers.
Aerodynamic interaction at the rear
The central theme of all these interventions is temperature management. The W16 has shown a thermal imbalance between the front and rear axles, which is why the engineers aim to increase rear-end load. To achieve this, studies in the wind tunnel and CFD suggest the diffuser volume has been increased to improve airflow extraction from the floor.
This update should also enhance the interaction between the floor, beam wing, and rear wing, creating a greater pressure difference between the upper and lower surfaces. This improves static rear downforce, stabilizes the car, and increases overall downforce. The goal is to achieve the same level of grip with a smaller slip angle, reducing tyre energy and temperature input.
The modification in the rear corner zone is intended to improve the evacuation of hot air from the brake ducts during braking. This reduces the amount of heat transferred by the rim to the outer surface of the tyre, improving thermal management in races. However, this could make things more difficult in qualifying by making it harder to bring the tyres into the ideal temperature window.
The next three races will be a critical turning point for the W16’s future. If the upgrades work, Mercedes may finally have a more complete car — strong in races and still fast in qualifying. This could allow the team to close the performance gap to McLaren, which on paper could lose some of its advantage with the introduction of TD018.
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