Dutch GP: rivals fall behind, is McLaren now free to race?
With fourteen of the twenty-four races of the season completed and ten remaining, the Dutch Grand Prix marks the critical phase in the Formula 1 drivers’ championship battle between Oscar Piastri – with 284 points and six wins – and Lando Norris – holding 275 points and five victories, including three in the last four races. At the end of the summer break, other drivers have maximized (almost) everything from their cars, but the Woking duo has the machinery to fight for their first world title. In recent months, thanks to various updates and other adjustments, McLaren has taken a step forward in qualifying, making it increasingly difficult for their rivals to compete.
The Dutch GP could present a challenge for all chasers for several reasons, and the general trend shows McLaren’s superiority is more pronounced on technical circuits that require high-downforce setups. Zandvoort is similar in characteristics to Budapest, with many medium-speed sections dominating the 4-kilometer track. High-downforce setups will be adopted also in anticipation of rain, which is expected throughout all three days of the weekend, particularly on Friday, according to forecasts.
Norris finds a favorable track, Piastri must change course at Zandvoort
Lando Norris’s current form, which began in Spielberg with the introduction of corrective updates that helped him find single-lap rhythm, has delivered strong results but has been overshadowed by the consistency of his teammate. In the last four races, Norris has triumphed three times, yet Piastri has finished second on all three occasions, losing only thirteen points in this stretch. The Australian has consistently fought for victories, but in Austria and Hungary, he lost out primarily due to better strategies from the other side of the garage. In Spielberg, keeping car 81 out for three extra laps in the first stint prevented him from fighting for the win, while in Budapest, with falling temperatures, the one-stop strategy proved to be fastest, as Mario Isola had predicted on Saturday night.
Will we see similar situations at Zandvoort? Possibly, if both sides of the garage are allowed to operate independently based on race conditions. After Spa, Zak Brown mentioned the concept of “free to race”: “We want to reach a position where only our two drivers are fighting for the championship.” With Max Verstappen nearly 100 points behind McLaren, the opportunity is there. In that scenario, the drivers’ ability to position themselves favorably could be decisive for the entire weekend.
In recent years, Zandvoort has proven to be one of Norris’s strongest circuits, with a third place and a win in past Dutch GPs. On the other hand, Piastri faces some challenges at the Dutch track that are not ideal for his driving style. Last year, he delivered underwhelming performances in both qualifying and the race. This year, the Australian has made significant progress, particularly on high-downforce circuits, showing a 2-2 qualifying record against Norris and a slight advantage in pace. However, in races, Norris has dominated with a 4-0 record and 86 points compared to Piastri’s 63. Following Zandvoort, three more high-downforce events – Singapore, Mexico City, and Losail – will play a major role in the standings, where Piastri will need to close the gap and apply pressure on his teammate. For Norris, it is crucial to reduce the deficit in preparation for potential double victories leaning toward his strengths; any misstep could be a very negative signal.
Not just track characteristics favor McLaren – rain expected!
Among the direct chasers, only Mercedes is more competitive on high-downforce tracks compared to low-downforce ones. Zandvoort’s similarity to the Hungaroring comes from medium- and low-speed corners, but the higher average speed in the Netherlands reduces rear-end limitations, potentially benefiting Ferrari and Red Bull. Additionally, lateral loads are higher compared to the last weekend before the summer break, which could create challenges for Mercedes. Weather forecasts predict strong winds and low temperatures throughout the weekend (around 20°C, similar to Silverstone and Montreal), along with a high probability of rain on Friday and Saturday. So far in 2025, no wet qualifying has occurred; McLaren would clearly be the favorite, but Verstappen and Russell remain factors due to their cars’ ability to optimize performance in dry conditions. Ferrari aims to continue the positive trend established after the Spielberg updates, but as in the past two years, Zandvoort will present a challenging test for the Scuderia.
The Sunday race is unlikely to be free from variable and unpredictable conditions. In dry conditions, Pirelli’s tire selection has been made to create more strategic options for a race that has offered limited excitement in previous years without rain. This year, compounds C2-C3-C4 will be used, one step softer than last year. In addition, the FIA has raised the minimum pit-lane speed from 60 km/h to 80 km/h to encourage a two-stop strategy. Previously, the Dutch GP was one of the few events with a 60 km/h limit, and the extended pit lane in 2024 favored a one-stop race. The change reduces total pit-stop time by 3-4 seconds, aligning it closer to the average pit-lane time on the calendar. However, rain could disrupt plans and deliver the fourth wet race of the year, all three of which McLaren has won and dominated so far.
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