McLaren has opened the season with four wins from five Grands Prix and one Sprint, proving to have the most versatile and competitive car on the grid. It’s unlikely that anyone will challenge their lead in the Constructors’ Championship, but the Drivers’ standings do not allow for restful nights. Oscar Piastri holds a 12, 26, and 52-point lead over Max Verstappen, George Russell, and Charles Leclerc respectively—an important advantage for the Woking-based team, but not an unassailable one, just as the MCL39’s technical superiority isn’t absolute. The next month will also expose McLaren’s main areas of vulnerability, alongside the looming question mark surrounding the impact of the technical directive on front wings.
The two faces of McLaren
It is now well known that the MCL39’s great strength lies in its management of the rear tyres, a quality that stems from excellent balance as well as abundant downforce, allowing the suspension to be set up mechanically in a less aggressive way on the tyres. Bahrain showcased McLaren’s maximum superiority—on a hot, high-degradation track that historically challenges the rear axle—immediately followed by Australia, marked by a twisty third sector and the difficult management of intermediates on an increasingly dry surface. This strength will also be felt in Spain, Canada, Austria, Hungary, and the Netherlands, while in other contexts the MCL39 will be more exposed to rivals.
The British car, in fact, inherits from its predecessors a greater aggressiveness on the front tyres. Pirelli developed the 2025 tyres to be more resistant to graining, inadvertently suiting McLaren’s needs—though they still suffer from it, albeit to a lesser extent. Miami, with its extremely smooth asphalt and the switch to a softer tyre compound compared to last year, will be another stop where front-end management will be crucial, with competitors ready to apply pressure. On the other hand, Suzuka and Jeddah represented the worst-case scenario from this standpoint, but later the MCL39 will face other front-limited tracks such as Silverstone and Spa.
The other weak point
Right after Miami, the calendar features Imola and Monte Carlo—two events where qualifying will be crucial. One-lap performance is certainly not the MCL39’s strong suit. It’s a particularly tricky car to push to the limit, having missed out on pole position in Jeddah, Suzuka, and the Shanghai Sprint. Piastri says he feels comfortable with the car, while in these situations Norris still complains about a lack of confidence in the machinery.
“Some characteristics are the same,” said the Briton in China when comparing the 2025 car to last year’s, only to speak of a significant change in character a few weeks later in Bahrain: “There’s just something not clicking between me and the car. I can’t do the laps I could last season. Back then I knew exactly what the car was going to do in every single corner—I felt it in my hands. This year, the situation couldn’t be more different.”
The challenge for McLaren in the coming weeks will be to better exploit the car’s potential in qualifying, in order not to hand over further pole positions and victories to their rivals. In Monte Carlo, the MCL39 will be able to rely on its ability to preserve tyres through to the final sector—especially this year with the debut of the new ultra-soft C6 compound. However, in the Principality as in Imola, agility over kerbs and bumpy asphalt will also matter. This is an area where the 2024 car already didn’t excel, and there’s suspicion that the characteristics of the 2025 project may have further weakened it. McLaren has pushed the suspension kinematics of the MCL39 to the limit to better condition airflow and stabilise the floor’s posture, but this may have compromised its mechanical behaviour—something that will be under scrutiny in Italy and Monaco.
The variable of the technical directive
A week after Monte Carlo, Formula 1 will land in Spain, for one of the season’s most anticipated Grands Prix. In Barcelona, the new flexibility tests for front wings will come into force, reducing the allowed deformation at high speeds. The technical directive will affect aerodynamic efficiency on the straights, but especially balance. Less flexion in fast corners will shift aerodynamic load to the front, risking an overly sharp front end and destabilising the rear. Teams will therefore have to rebalance the cars in transitions between high and low-speed sections, which is one of the most difficult tasks with ground-effect cars.
In a Formula 1 where gaps are measured in tenths of a second, this is a significant change—though it’s hard to predict how it will impact the competitive order. McLaren is among the teams that best exploit front wing flexibility, but Woking may be well prepared to adapt. The MCL39 also boasts a stable rear end that generates plenty of downforce—valuable traits for counterbalancing a stiffer front wing producing more load in high-speed corners.
Conversely, the car’s extreme, very stiff suspension—designed with limited travel—may reduce the mechanical tools available to correct the balance, if necessary. Many variables are in play, including how individual drivers adapt, making it difficult to predict who will be affected the most by the directive. One thing is certain: McLaren, as the current top team, has the most to lose.
Updates in the pipeline
May will also be the month when the reigning world champions introduce their first major update package. The Woking team is mainly working on the rear of the car, having tested a new diffuser on Friday in Jeddah. The new components weren’t used in the race, but this does not represent a rejection—the aim in Saudi Arabia was simply to gather data to finalise development in the factory. The problem is that rivals won’t stand still and will introduce upgrades of their own. 2025 could really be the year McLaren brings the Drivers’ title back to Woking, but the mission is still far from accomplished.
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