McLaren arrives at the final round of the F1 season with more questions than certainties. The 2025 campaign was supposed to mark the team’s return to the very top, thanks to the MCL39 being superior to its rivals for much of the championship. Yet, despite clinching the Constructors’ Championship, the Drivers’ title remains wide open. Internal management, more than their competitors, has hindered the full potential of the Woking team.
The Papaya rules put McLaren in check
Lando Norris will head to Abu Dhabi with a 12-point lead over Max Verstappen, while Oscar Piastri trails four points behind the Dutchman. On paper, McLaren could have sealed both championships weeks ago, given the performance of the MCL39. But reality tells a different story: the title fight remains alive, fueled by Max’s consistency and the strategic uncertainties within the British team.
This combination has complicated a season that began with much higher ambitions. The key factor has been the team’s approach to its drivers. Faced with the real possibility of having both in contention for the championship, the team never wanted to take a clear position.
The “Papaya rules,” designed to protect internal balance and avoid favoritism, ended up limiting Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at crucial moments. A choice that preserved harmony but undermined the substance of a potential dominance. The race in Losail was the clearest example of this failed strategy.
In trying not to disadvantage one driver, McLaren ended up penalizing both. The Safety Car management compromised an almost certain victory for Oscar Piastri and a highly probable podium for Norris, reopening a scenario that seemed closed. A combination of political caution and indecision turned a golden opportunity into a real risk.
Jos Verstappen: “I imagine they’re nervous”
Verstappen, for his part, has capitalized on every uncertainty of his rivals. The Dutchman, aided by a Red Bull that continued developing the RB21 until the final phase of the season, once again demonstrated that he is the reference point of modern Formula 1. Twelve points behind with one race to go is not a reassuring margin for Norris.
The same applies to the four points that separate Max from Piastri, allowing the Australian to breathe. Everything remains open. In this context, it is no surprise that provocations have come from within the Red Bull environment, such as those from Jos Verstappen, always ready to pressure the opposition:
“I imagine there is a bit of nervousness in McLaren, because this could be the only chance for both drivers to win a championship. You never know if you’ll find yourself in that position, right?” he said. These words strike a sensitive point: the future.
Indeed, 2026 will bring a radical regulatory change, with completely different cars and potentially revolutionary on-track dynamics. McLaren has no guarantee of being as competitive in the new technical cycle. That is why 2025 likely represents the most concrete opportunity in recent years to return to the top in both championships.
If it is not seized on Sunday, there is no certainty of another chance in the near future. On the other hand, there is no clear idea yet of the performance hierarchy under the next regulations, and it is far from certain that McLaren will continue its dominance. The title is still in Papaya hands, certainly. But now all the pressure is on them.
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