The laps Yuki Tsunoda completed in the RB20 during the 2024 post-season F1 tests at Yas Marina will likely remain his last for Red Bull.
This morning, Christian Horner‘s team announced that Liam Lawson will replace Sergio Perez for the 2025 season, making him the new teammate to four-time world champion Max Verstappen.
Despite the impressive numbers Tsunoda has posted over the past two seasons with AlphaTauri and Racing Bulls, Milton Keynes decided to place their bet on the 22-year-old New Zealander, who has only 11 Grand Prix under his belt, compared to Tsunoda’s over 80, with three points finishes.
The contribution Tsunoda has made to the Faenza-based team is clear, and the numbers support his effort: 30 points scored in 2024, accounting for 65% of the team’s total, 12 Q3 qualifications, 18-6 in qualifying against his teammates (Ricciardo first, Lawson later), and 14-6 in race results.
A very similar situation occurred in 2023, with Tsunoda contributing 17 points out of 25 for the team, which was then known as AlphaTauri (the remaining 8 points came from Daniel Ricciardo, 6, and Lawson, 2, with Nyck de Vries contributing none).
Despite this steady growth and increasing consistency, these elements were not enough to secure the highly coveted seat alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull, a position instead taken by Lawson.
Behind this seemingly incomprehensible decision, there are dynamics that, particularly in Formula 1, should not be overlooked or dismissed. Numbers alone should not be simply read but also interpreted. Otherwise, Yuki Tsunoda would have been at Red Bull instead of Lawson.
A key factor that Red Bull considered in choosing Liam Lawson is the potential for development. Lawson, in his 11 F1 races, has scored points three times, which is just over 25% of his races in the Top 10. However, what Red Bull sees is Liam’s growth, which could make him a stronger and more useful driver for the team than Yuki Tsunoda.
Despite Tsunoda’s remarkable seasons, he is seen as a driver who has almost reached his maximum potential. Lawson, on the other hand, is still a work in progress with a solid foundation to build upon. In other words, there is still a lot of untapped potential in Lawson, while Yuki Tsunoda is perceived as having plateaued in his development, reaching the peak of his growth with little room for improvement in several aspects.
Another important factor to consider is the relationship between Red Bull Racing and Honda. 2025 will be the final season in which the team, led by Christian Horner, uses Honda power units before switching to their own engines, developed by Red Bull Powertrains and branded Ford Performance.
The Japanese manufacturer will remain in Formula 1 in the upcoming technical era starting in 2026, supplying engines to Aston Martin Racing, forming a new significant partnership with a team poised for success—not necessarily in terms of results, but certainly in terms of financial, structural, and personnel resources.
This major shift makes Yuki Tsunoda much more vulnerable at Red Bull. With Honda no longer having a close tie to the team, Red Bull is free to prioritize other drivers, especially those chosen by its own scouting department, without having to consider supporting a driver who will leave at the end of the season to supply engines to other teams.
Lastly, and this is not an insignificant detail, Yuki Tsunoda has never received significant regard from Red Bull’s higher-ups. It’s no coincidence that, after Nyck de Vries, Daniel Ricciardo was brought in at AlphaTauri to evaluate whether his talent could still be leveraged to replace Perez.
In conclusion, Yuki Tsunoda has never truly been considered as a genuine alternative to Perez or a real contender for the Red Bull seat. If Yuki wishes to make a leap forward, he will have to hope for support from Honda when they become partners with Aston Martin Racing, and then look to explore the market once more.
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