The Abu Dhabi challenge sees McLaren and Lando Norris emerge as the reference point on Friday, thanks to their superiority in medium-speed corners and an extremely precise front end that makes the difference in the longer sections. Red Bull pays the price for understeer and focuses everything on straight-line efficiency: a long night of work awaits the team…
Ten months of fights, wheel-to-wheel duels, victories and setbacks now reach their climax in Abu Dhabi, perhaps in the most fascinating way possible. What looked destined to be a two-way battle has surprisingly turned into a three-way rivalry for the title. Max Verstappen has inserted himself into the papaya-coloured duel, proving skilled at capitalizing on the opportunities McLaren left behind to keep his hopes alive.
McLaren wants to close and win this fight, turning into reality the technical superiority shown throughout the season. That advantage could again prove decisive in Abu Dhabi, because the Yas Marina Circuit highlights several qualities not only of the MCL39, but also of Lando Norris, who has always been competitive on this track in the past.
One of McLaren’s biggest strengths is its wide operating window, a characteristic that immediately made the difference today. The British driver was able to focus on fine-tuning details without having to revolutionize the base setup, chasing not only the last hundredths but, above all, the sensations that allow him to be fully in sync with the car.
The almost four-tenths gap inflicted on the competition shows that the weekend has started in the right direction and, above all, that Norris is not aiming to settle but to fight for the win and close the title battle relying only on his own strength. It is the best antidote to pressure, and it is interesting to understand where those four tenths come from, especially compared to Verstappen.
Data analysis clearly highlights the superiority of the British driver and the Woking car in medium-speed corners, which throughout the season have already been the perfect hunting ground for McLaren. At Yas Marina these corners dominate much of the track and play a crucial role in tyre management.
The Abu Dhabi circuit, especially after the 2021 layout changes, combines two souls: the faster one defined by the long straights in the second sector, and the one made of medium-speed corners, which make the first and third sectors decisive for performance. It is exactly in this balance that the philosophies of McLaren and Red Bull diverge.
The MCL39 has never been particularly efficient, especially when setups lean toward medium or low downforce, as seen today in Abu Dhabi. This is why the lap time must be built elsewhere — in the corners — and this is precisely where McLaren’s qualities stand out, clearly visible in the first and third sectors where Norris set purple times.
In Turn 1, for example, Norris manages to be around 10 km/h faster than Verstappen, gaining a tenth and a half immediately. The difference seems to arise primarily from the annoying understeer the Dutchman complained about throughout the session, later confirmed by Helmut Marko in his post-session analysis.
The theme finds further confirmation when looking at how the gap evolves in the third sector, which features a variety of corners but ones that are highly representative. The same understeer reappears in Turn 9, where McLaren’s sharper front end and the load it generates allow for a cleaner, more flowing line, closing the corner already halfway through. We have often spoken about how, in long corners, the MCL39’s front end can make the difference, and that is emerging again in Abu Dhabi.
Equally significant is what happens in the hotel section. Here, more than rear-end management, the issue seems to come from a front end that struggles to rotate efficiently. In Turns 12 and 13, the slowest ones, there are no major difficulties, but the difference becomes evident especially in Turn 14, at the exit of the hotel complex.
It is a particularly tricky corner, defined by negative camber that pushes the car outward, making a precise front end fundamental. Not surprisingly, Norris manages to keep the throttle open longer in that point, especially on entry, carrying about 8 km/h more mid-corner speed. A gap that multiplies in the final sequence of corners.
The only weapon left to Red Bull — forced to deal with the persistent understeer that has slowed it several times this season — is a low-downforce setup, essential to maximize aerodynamic efficiency and gain time on the straights. It is a deliberate choice, and it is no surprise that Verstappen built his lap time mainly in the second sector, which features two long straights where he recorded around 6 km/h more than the MCL39 with DRS open.
The fight is being played out between two completely different ways of interpreting both car and circuit. McLaren has started on the right foot, while Red Bull is facing a long night ahead: as Verstappen himself admitted, “today was a constant fight with the car.” Fixing that persistent understeer will be crucial if Red Bull wants to try its final remaining option: to surprise McLaren.
If Saturday follows the same pattern, the championship fight could be decided long before Sunday night’s fireworks even begin.
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