Why Max Verstappen is already the favorite for victory in F1 Baku Grand Prix. Max Verstappen arrives in Baku as the favorite thanks to Red Bull’s “Monza package.”.

F1 | Here’s why there is already a favorite in Baku, but it is not a McLaren driver

The “Monza package” has reignited Max Verstappen’s championship momentum: the Dutch driver arrives in Baku as the favorite and could once again beat McLaren, just as he did in Italy. His victory at Monza has boosted confidence inside Red Bull and temporarily cooled the optimism at McLaren, ahead of a race where Verstappen already seems the man to beat. The three-time world champion dominated the Italian Grand Prix with the new aerodynamic package developed specifically for low-downforce tracks, proving that the RB21, despite its highs and lows, can still strike hard when conditions suit.

The attention now turns to the streets of Baku, a circuit that shares many similarities with Monza: incredibly long straights and some of the highest top speeds on the calendar. The combination makes the Azerbaijan Grand Prix a track where Red Bull can once again showcase the benefits of its latest upgrade.

In Baku, Verstappen is automatically among the favorites for victory

According to former Formula 1 driver Johnny Herbert, who spoke to Racing Tipster, the aerodynamic upgrade introduced at Monza could prove decisive once again in Azerbaijan. Herbert explained: “Historically, Red Bull has always performed well in Baku, and there are high expectations that Max will deliver the same results again this year. The track is a little bit like Monza, but with more 90-degree corners. It’s a low to medium-speed circuit overall, but with one incredibly long straight.”

Herbert went on to add: “Verstappen has always been able to manage a car with low downforce. He can push it to the absolute maximum, even where aerodynamics would normally play a bigger role. This is his natural environment: he thrives when the car feels on the edge.”

While McLaren still appears to be the overall favorite, Verstappen demonstrated at Monza that he can completely overturn the odds. Herbert, however, did not rule out other names: “You can never rule out Max, but you also cannot dismiss McLaren. Realistically, that is going to be the fight for the podium, although perhaps George Russell could get involved as well. Baku is such an unpredictable circuit, one where the Safety Car frequently comes into play, and races rarely go exactly as expected. It’s one of those tracks that tests both driver and machine, and it often produces surprises.”

A circuit of unpredictability and surprises

Since 2017, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix has consistently delivered drama, shocks, and unexpected winners. This year, the focus will inevitably fall on the battle between McLaren and Red Bull, but Verstappen’s strong performance at Monza has reopened scenarios that seemed out of reach only a few weeks ago. McLaren may start as the favorite on paper, but with the “Monza package” Max Verstappen is more than ready to shuffle the deck once again in Baku.