McLaren is no longer winning in Formula 1. With the Singapore Grand Prix, the MCL39 has now gone three races without crossing the finish line first. While from Monza to Baku the competitiveness of Red Bull on low-downforce tracks made the difference, at Marina Bay the Woking cars seemed perfectly positioned to dominate the weekend. So, what is happening to the Woking team? The reason is not simply that the car hasn’t received updates. The explanation is far more complex.
Car too focused on the front end
The Asian Grand Prix represented a valuable opportunity for redemption for the reigning champions after two races where the car could not realistically compete for victory. From analyses of the Italian and Azerbaijan Grands Prix, the strengths of other cars, primarily Red Bull, were evident, making it hard to believe—and it still is—that rivals had fully closed the gap to the MCL39.
Questions arise regarding the key factors that compromised the MCL39’s qualifying performance. In the race, however, the picture was different: the British car displayed a brilliant pace, the fastest overall, but was heavily constrained by starting positions that prevented Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris from realistically challenging for victory.
Examining McLaren’s telemetry, it consistently emerges that the drivers could rely on an extremely solid front-end—sometimes perhaps excessively so. However, when it was necessary to transfer load to the rear on low-drag tracks, the car tended to become front-heavy, creating significant handling issues. This was evident even in pre-season testing.
In these scenarios, drivers were forced to reduce steering input due to the high front-end stability of the MCL39. Throughout the season, the British team has shown that performance was primarily built in the first half of the corner, during turn-in. However, dynamics are gradually changing. Lando Norris himself confirmed on Saturday in Singapore that “things have changed.”
Shift in balance focus
At this point, it is clear that greater attention has been directed to the rear axle. As Lando highlighted, the layout and characteristics of the Marina Bay circuit made front-end setup more challenging for all teams, especially during qualifying. Ensuring proper front-end operation within the optimal tire window proved particularly demanding.
The team believes that the slight drop in performance is due to the newly resurfaced track sections, which provide high grip and generate consistent understeer. Norris also noted that it is no coincidence that Mercedes emerged strongly in Singapore, regardless of ongoing discussions about flexible wings. In the race, the critical issue was managing rear-axle temperatures.
The understeering behavior was accentuated by the Soft tire in qualifying, where the Pirelli C5, despite offering more grip, concentrates most of its adhesion at the rear, further challenging the front-end. With the Medium compound, the balance was noticeably better. Therefore, the qualifying deficit can also be explained by tire choice amplifying all negative aspects.
Similar struggles for Ferrari
Unlike previous races, the Medium compound in Singapore was unsuitable for a single fast lap, forcing teams to use the Soft tire. For McLaren, a scenario similar to Monaco was expected, where despite not excelling in traction, the car could make significant gains in turn-in. In this context, compared to the Ferrari rivals—primarily in Monaco—the MCL39 displayed similar behavior.
This widespread difficulty, shared by nearly all teams, also helps explain Ferrari’s reduced competitiveness. The SF-25 now suffers chronically from a lack of rotation; when this issue is compounded by track characteristics, layout, and newly resurfaced sections emphasizing understeer, it becomes clear that for the Italian car, the race was a true debacle, beyond even brake-related issues.
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