Three-way fight for the 2025 F1 crown: Every scenario for the Abu Dhabi decider. All the championship scenarios for Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri.

For the first time since 2010, three drivers arrive at the final race of the Formula 1 season with a chance to become world champion. The favourite is Lando Norris, who enters Abu Dhabi with a 12-point advantage over Max Verstappen and a 16-point margin over Oscar Piastri. Let us take a look at all the possible combinations ahead of Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Abu Dhabi will host a title decider featuring three contenders fighting for the Formula 1 world championship. This is not an unprecedented situation, as Yas Marina has already crowned a champion under similar circumstances — and Ferrari fans remember it well. It was the scene of Sebastian Vettel’s first world title in 2010, won at the expense of Fernando Alonso.

That precedent alone gives Lando Norris every reason to be superstitious, as Alonso arrived at the final round as the championship leader only to leave empty-handed. Back then, the Spaniard held a strong lead going into the weekend: eight points over Mark Webber and a remarkable 15 over Vettel, although Red Bull had the advantage of playing a two-against-one strategic game.

A strategic mistake on Ferrari’s pit wall, who covered Webber after the Australian made an error, sent Alonso into heavy traffic. The result was a bitter seventh place and the gift of Red Bull’s first world championship.

Curiously, the team from Milton Keynes once again arrives in the role of the hunter — but this time Max Verstappen finds himself outnumbered. He must battle the two McLarens: Lando Norris, who leads him by 12 points, and Oscar Piastri, who sits four points further behind.

Now let us examine all the possible combinations that could allow each of the three contenders to celebrate once the chequered flag falls on Sunday. Norris clearly has the best odds, but as 2010 taught everyone, nothing should ever be considered guaranteed until the very end.

Norris becomes champion if…

• He finishes in any podium position.
• He finishes 4th or 5th and Verstappen does not win.
• He finishes 6th and neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins.
• He finishes 7th or 8th, Verstappen finishes no higher than 3rd and Piastri no higher than 2nd.
• He finishes 9th or 10th, Verstappen finishes no higher than 4th and Piastri no higher than 3rd.
• He finishes outside the points, Verstappen finishes no higher than 5th and Piastri no higher than 3rd.

Verstappen becomes champion if…

• He wins and Norris finishes no higher than 4th.
• He finishes 2nd, Norris finishes no higher than 7th and Piastri finishes behind him.
• He finishes 3rd, Norris finishes no higher than 9th and Piastri does not win.
• He finishes 4th, Norris finishes outside the points and Piastri finishes no higher than 3rd.

Piastri becomes champion if…

• He wins and Norris finishes no higher than 6th.
• He finishes 2nd, Norris finishes no higher than 9th and Verstappen finishes no higher than 4th.