The unpredictable weather at Spa-Francorchamps turned strategy on its head during the 2025 Belgian Grand Prix weekend. Several Formula 1 teams, including Red Bull Racing, Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team, and MoneyGram Haas F1 Team, made deliberate decisions to switch to higher-downforce setups in anticipation of a wet race on Sunday. These adjustments included fitting larger rear wings and sacrificing top-end speed and qualifying performance in favor of increased stability in wet and mixed conditions.
The race day at Spa began under leaden skies, with persistent rain making its presence felt early in the morning, as forecasted by multiple teams ahead of the event. A heavy downpour forced race control to suspend the Formula 3 event, and only after a temporary respite in weather was the Formula 2 Feature Race able to proceed. The signs were clear: teams needed to prepare for a wet Grand Prix, but the extent and consistency of the rain throughout the race remained uncertain.
While most teams agreed that the Grand Prix would likely start on a wet track, weather predictions for the latter stages of the race varied. Some strategists anticipated improving conditions and a drying circuit, while others expected intermittent showers to continue throughout the afternoon.
This uncertainty led teams to follow divergent setup paths. For Red Bull Racing in particular, the shift marked a significant change in approach. Initially, the team had opted for a low-downforce configuration to capitalize on the straight-line speed of the RB21 in dry conditions—an approach that had backfired at Silverstone. Learning from that experience, Red Bull opted for a more conservative, rain-oriented setup at Spa.
Their low-downforce rear wing selection during Friday’s practice sessions was not a gamble, but a calculated decision aimed at maximizing the RB21’s aerodynamic efficiency and high-speed cornering prowess. During Friday’s qualifying session, Red Bull was among the fastest on the straights, validating that setup for dry conditions.
However, switching to a more downforce-heavy rear wing ahead of Saturday’s sessions led to a reduction of around 6 km/h on the Kemmel Straight—an impact translating to a time loss of nearly three tenths of a second in that section alone. The revised setup clearly favored wet-weather performance, prioritizing rear-end grip and traction in slippery conditions over raw pace.
Although this move was a response to anticipated rain, it does not imply that Red Bull Racing necessarily hoped for a fully wet race. The team was aware that McLaren Racing—whose MCL39 has consistently shown strong performance in damp conditions—could still hold the upper hand if the race remained in a changeable “crossover” window where intermediate tyres begin to overheat.
McLaren, in contrast, decided not to alter their aerodynamic configuration. The team from Woking felt confident with their medium-downforce setup, particularly due to their car’s excellent balance in the middle sector of the track. Furthermore, McLaren believed that retaining decent straight-line speed remained critical, especially if the track began to dry. A lower-drag rear wing, although potentially problematic for downforce, could help the car defend and attack on Spa’s long straights.
This philosophy aligns with the car’s behavior observed earlier at Silverstone, where the MCL39 displayed impressive tyre management and high aerodynamic efficiency on a wet circuit. Red Bull’s revised setup, therefore, seemed to prioritize driver confidence and stability under braking and cornering, even at the expense of speed on the straights.
Red Bull Racing was not alone in this tactical shift. Aston Martin Aramco also made a substantial setup change between the Sprint and the second qualifying session. Taking advantage of the parc fermé reopening, the team fitted a higher-downforce rear wing to the AMR25—a necessary measure considering the car’s ongoing struggles with aerodynamic load.
For the Belgian Grand Prix weekend, Aston Martin had introduced a new low-drag rear wing with a distinctive “V” shape to strike a balance between downforce and top speed. This configuration allowed drivers Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll to clear Q1 on Friday. However, switching to a higher-downforce wing on Saturday came with consequences.
Despite improving track conditions, Fernando Alonso could only shave 0.04s off his Friday lap time. He also lost up to 8 km/h in DRS-closed areas and around 4 km/h even with DRS open. The performance gap between the two configurations was difficult to overcome in the twisty middle sector of Spa, where downforce matters most.
Lance Stroll summarized the dilemma, noting that if the team chose a low-downforce wing for straight-line speed, they lacked grip in the corners, but when opting for more downforce, they lost too much on the straights. Given Aston Martin’s persistent aerodynamic weaknesses, the decision to switch to a higher-downforce wing was almost inevitable.
Interestingly, differing strategies also emerged within the same teams. At Haas, Esteban Ocon—who had a strong showing in the Sprint with a fifth-place finish—decided not to modify his setup. In contrast, his teammate Oliver Bearman opted for a more downforce-heavy rear wing ahead of qualifying and the anticipated wet Grand Prix, prioritizing stability in fast corners and under braking.
Oliver Bearman’s change did not come without drawbacks. The added aerodynamic load increased the car’s vertical pressure, triggering bottoming—where the car’s floor repeatedly made contact with the asphalt, disrupting balance and performance. This issue, however, might be less pronounced during the race due to lower speeds on a wet track.
Among those committing to a similar high-downforce setup was Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Following a difficult qualifying performance, Kimi Antonelli’s team made significant changes to the car’s configuration, aiming to improve grip and driver confidence through the demanding middle sector. The wet race provided a perfect opportunity to mask earlier weaknesses and capitalize on improved handling. In addition, his car received a fresh power unit—an ideal chance to compensate for the engine failure he suffered earlier in the season at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Ultimately, the strategic gamble of running a higher-downforce setup in Belgium could prove decisive if the weather stays unpredictable. While such a configuration may compromise straight-line speed and dry-weather qualifying pace, it offers much-needed stability in treacherous wet conditions—something that may separate the contenders from the strugglers on race day.
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