Despite weather forecasts predicting rain for the Belgian Grand Prix, the Brackley-based Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team chose to run a very low-downforce setup on the W16 with George Russell starting from 12th on the grid, while rookie Kimi Antonelli will start from the pit lane after adjusting his car for wet conditions, breaking parc fermé regulations. The team appears to be in a downward spiral amid an unsettled environment.
What Has Broken Inside Mercedes? The Brackley outfit seems stuck in a black hole that Toto Wolff’s staff struggles to escape. The Belgian GP weekend is turning into one of the worst of the 2025 season, and race prospects look bleak.
George Russell qualified 12th, with Kimi Antonelli down in 17th and opting to start from the pit lane to reconfigure his W16 for rain. Antonelli has lost confidence in the black and silver car and emotionally admitted he needs to change his driving style to handle this difficult-to-drive Mercedes.
Russell, showing a more measured approach, tried to analyze the situation realistically: “We made some sensible changes between the sprint race and qualifying, but we just can’t understand what’s going on. In the first six races of the season, we achieved four podiums, now we’ve only managed one in the last six. It’s clear we’ve taken a big step backward toward the midfield.”
Russell paints a stark picture, as if the win in Canada three races ago is ancient history. Expectations were that Montreal marked the start of a winning cycle, but instead, the team has suffered a collapse. “My qualifying laps were really fast,” Russell admitted, “but as a team, we’re completely out of rhythm this weekend. Apart from Friday’s sprint qualifying, this has been my worst qualifying session of the year, just like Kimi’s. We have to figure out what’s happening.”
The Brackley team appears lost, and market rumors are not helping stabilize the atmosphere. Toto Wolff has not ruled out attempts to convince Max Verstappen to join, although he has indicated that the priority remains confirming George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. Mercedes management dislikes the idea of poaching the four-time world champion from Red Bull since it is not in their style to take a driver still under contract. This uncertainty inevitably breeds nervousness—albeit discreet—within the team.
Deputy Technical Director Simone Resta continues to produce updates for the W16’s development, but the car is not improving to expectations. Adding to the unrest is the fact that their customer team McLaren, powered by the same engine, regularly outperforms them.
At Spa-Francorchamps, Mercedes introduced a new front wing designed for high-speed circuits. The updated component is easily recognizable due to a redesigned second element supporting the nose, featuring a much longer chord on the side flap aimed at improving the outwash effect. The endplates also received subtle modifications to the flow diverters, a popular feature copied by many teams with various designs.
The track engineers led by Andrew Shovlin opted for a very low-downforce setup to exploit the new wing’s characteristics. George Russell reached 343.9 km/h braking into the Kemmel Straight, nearly matching Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari SF-25 top speed, which also focused on reducing downforce to maximize straight-line velocity and attempt overtakes.
This was a risky strategy, especially given Spa’s wet weather forecast, which would make controlling such low-downforce cars extremely challenging. While Antonelli is “protected” by a setup change suited to the rain, George Russell is chasing a lucky break to rekindle some enthusiasm in a team that has clearly lost momentum.
Last year, Russell won at Spa (before disqualification for being underweight compared to teammate Lewis Hamilton), capitalizing on a one-stop strategy when everyone else opted for two stops. However, the current situation at the “university of racing” has changed dramatically. It’s now up to Toto Wolff to find the way to unravel this increasingly complicated mess.
Leave a Reply