The third free practice session once again highlighted McLaren’s dominance in hot conditions. There’s no denying it: what was seen on the flying laps from Piastri, with a single attempt, and from Norris on his second lap, was impressive compared to all other competitors. There are multiple takeaways from the data, which we’ll summarise below with a look at the best laps from the top drivers in the session.
McLaren shines in the heat, strong engine, and the only ones able to push for an entire lap
The team to beat for qualifying is clearly McLaren. When temperatures rise—as the track nearly reached 47°C today—the papaya cars seem to widen the gap to their rivals significantly. This type of advantage in hot final practice sessions has been seen before, due in part to McLaren’s engine map being more aggressive than average, but also, and above all, thanks to an aerodynamic package that both generates a huge amount of downforce and allows the team to manage tyre temperatures—especially on the rear—far better than others. This enables their drivers to push for the entire qualifying lap, something their rivals can’t do. The data clearly shows a large advantage for Oscar Piastri in Sector 1, where all drivers except for the McLaren pair have to hold back to keep their tyres within the optimal temperature window, which would otherwise compromise the rest of the lap. This is evident through Turns 1-2 and then again at Turns 4 and 5, before stabilising slightly, but with Piastri maintaining a consistent grip advantage.
Ferrari still not sorted, struggles at the beginning of the lap
Behind the two McLarens was Charles Leclerc, who didn’t seem particularly happy with his lap and appeared to struggle especially at the start. Through Turns 1-2, he was as much as 15 km/h slower than Oscar Piastri. The Monegasque driver did improve throughout the lap, confirming earlier observations, delivering an excellent braking point into Turn 10 and showing the best cornering speeds at Turn 10 and Turn 12—two critical corners in terms of tyres, downforce, and grip. This confirms that Ferrari is decent, but currently powerless against such a strong McLaren. Leclerc, who had previously made another mistake at Turn 7 and fell behind Russell and Verstappen, reclaimed the position of “best of the rest” in the final sector, but it’s not a comfortable situation, as Verstappen and Russell are not easy opponents.
Max Verstappen not perfect on his lap, but Red Bull is in good shape. Mercedes quick, at least in qualifying
With McLaren clearly ahead, Charles Leclerc’s main rivals for qualifying will likely be Verstappen and Russell—Hamilton currently seems out of contention for the second row. Max Verstappen did not put together a particularly strong lap in FP3, but he may have more to show in qualifying as he looks to challenge the papaya duo. Adjustments are still needed on the RB21: the front end wasn’t always as precise as Verstappen likes, and the rear wasn’t consistently stable. Additionally, the Honda power unit is likely being run conservatively in the high temperatures and will only be pushed to its limits at the last moment. Russell, meanwhile, could be a wild card, with the W15 heavily loaded in terms of aero and well-suited to single-lap performance—more so than in race trim—making him a serious threat in qualifying.
Unlike in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, qualifying in Barcelona takes place in full daylight, which clearly plays into McLaren’s hands, making them the overwhelming favourites. But they cannot afford mistakes. Verstappen, Russell, and Leclerc will try to disrupt Piastri and Norris, and at the same time fight for a critical second row, as race pace is expected to be far more balanced.
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