Max Verstappen wants to be the mosquito capable of stinging the McLarens. The Dutchman is only two points behind Lando Norris in the world championship standings and twelve points from Oscar Piastri, the current leader.
The four-time world champion, with a win in Japan, two second places, and two pole positions in five races, is the only one still hanging on to the super-favorite MCL39s, despite covering up the problems still surrounding the RB21 — a car, the first without the contribution of Adrian Newey’s genius, that has yet to find balance, alternating between brilliant performances and colorless races, as happened in Bahrain.
Who should McLaren focus on in their title fight? Mercedes, who are second in the Constructors’ standings but 77 points behind the papaya cars (188 to 111 points), or Red Bull, who, as usual, can only rely on Verstappen’s car?
Mercedes has a more consistent performance (although at Jeddah and Suzuka, George Russell missed out on the podium), while Red Bull is more erratic but capable of performance peaks that, under certain conditions, allow it to challenge the McLarens.
The RB21 is very sensitive to temperature variations: it struggles in the heat but excels when the weather is milder — the exact opposite of McLaren. At Milton Keynes, after discarding last year’s multi-stage cooling system, they thought they had resolved reliability issues to fully exploit the potential of the Honda RBPT 002 power unit.
The impact wasn’t only on engine performance but also on aerodynamics, with a loss of efficiency that had always been one of Pierre Waché’s team’s strong points. In reality, the RB21 still changes the shape of its engine cover from one GP to another — a sign that the topic is still open, although without the extreme variations seen in 2024.
Red Bull is in a transitional phase because the Milton Keynes factory is undergoing major changes: the Bedford wind tunnel is the oldest in F1. Originally used by the British Ministry of Defense for aircraft development, it was converted for automotive use in 2003 with the installation of a rolling road, when the team was still Jaguar. Dietrich Mateschitz invested heavily in modernizing the facility, enabling Newey’s technical team to win eight drivers’ titles and six constructors’ titles.
At the heart of Red Bull, a new wind tunnel is being built and should become operational next year. Meanwhile, Christian Horner’s team must deal with a facility that has lost correlation with track data, and all simulation systems also seem to be reaching their limits.
The team, aware that they theoretically have a competitive car, has adapted its approach to race weekends: they trust less in homework done at the factory and aim for maximum flexibility during free practice.
Indeed, Red Bull continues to carry out constant-speed aerodynamic tests, uses flow-vis paint more than others to verify airflow on track, and works extensively on ride heights and suspension settings in search of an elusive ideal setup.
At this point, the data collected on the RB21 is transferred to the simulator, starting an overnight work phase before qualifying that has recently involved Rudy Van de Buren, a sim driver who has never driven a recent F1 car. In short, their GP approach is different and opposite to other teams: at Milton Keynes, they are making necessity a virtue.
In Imola, in two races’ time, an important upgrade package is expected to debut, which should reveal the RB21’s true potential. However, there’s no doubt about one thing that could define Red Bull’s season: sprint race weekends do not favor Milton Keynes.
In Miami, in fact, the second of six sprint events on this year’s calendar will take place. With this format, there is only one free practice session instead of the usual three, to make room for sprint qualifying and the Saturday sprint race — moments when there is no time for experiments and performance must be prioritized.
Therefore, could sprint races be an obstacle to Red Bull’s competitiveness? In China, we already saw the first sign, with Verstappen finishing fourth, and this weekend we will understand the impact in Miami…
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