The Sprint Qualifying data from Austin shows that Red Bull has effectively matched McLaren on raw pace. Max Verstappen and the Red Bull team work tirelessly session by session, with the clear belief that they have a genuine chance at the championship. On the Circuit of the Americas, the Dutch driver not only secured Sprint pole but also applied immediate pressure on Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, and the entire McLaren squad, even if the weekend was just beginning. On a single lap, the technical performance of both teams appears nearly identical. Red Bull seems to have closed the gap to McLaren, even on a challenging and technical track like Austin. Aerodynamic load indicators are almost identical, with Red Bull also enjoying superior drag reduction system efficiency. This result came despite the need to raise Verstappen’s RB21 after aggressive bottoming in free practice, showing that Red Bull can maintain optimal performance even while adjusting ride height or softening the suspension. Overall, the impression is one of parity, with small details and driver skill making the difference.
Top 3 comparison: Piastri loses time in turn 1, Norris misses pole at the last moment
Overlaying Verstappen’s pole lap with the McLarens of Piastri (white) and Norris confirms these impressions. Differences are minimal. Piastri loses ground immediately in turn 1, entering too fast and compromising the exit, giving up over a tenth and a half to Verstappen, which grows to two and a half by the end of the “snake” due to a suboptimal approach to turn 6. Norris is strong from turn 1 through the snake but loses time hitting curbs while trying to shorten the line too aggressively. Verstappen benefits from the rivals’ imperfections and Red Bull’s strength: consistent behavior in high-load lateral transitions, a key factor in his pole at Suzuka. The middle sector is virtually even between Norris and Verstappen, with Piastri slightly slower. Red Bull’s top speed advantage is evident, but Norris executes excellent braking in turns 11 and 12, keeping the sector close. The final sector, expected to favor McLaren, surprisingly goes to Verstappen. Data shows Norris lost time entering turn 15, possibly pushing tire temperatures too high, while Verstappen sets his best lap sector in turn 19 at the critical moment, surpassing McLaren’s pace from free practice. Norris enters the final corner slightly early, allowing Verstappen the extra milliseconds needed for pole.
The race pace question
While the single-lap comparison shows clear parity, uncertainty remains regarding race pace. The hot American track will be demanding for tire management, especially in the Sprint run during the hottest hours. This could favor the Red Bull duo, who show excellent tire control, particularly Max Verstappen, the best at managing temperatures lap after lap. A tight battle among the top three seems likely, with turn 1 after the start being particularly critical.
Mercedes, Ferrari, and Hulkenberg
Mercedes struggled to replicate the performance seen in Singapore, partially expected given the high temperatures and soft tire compounds combined with a track demanding lateral stability and directional changes, areas where the W16 is typically less comfortable. George Russell did not deliver a strong lap, likely capable of second-row pace but leaving it unexpressed, possibly due to an early track session. This allowed Nico Hulkenberg to shine, not only reaching SQ3 but delivering an exceptional lap, managing tire temperatures carefully and maximizing performance in the final sector.
Ferrari, meanwhile, suffered a total disaster. The SF25 has been stagnant in development, with a rear suspension that increased setup flexibility but failed to lower the car effectively, limiting lap time potential. The car’s balance is neutral, giving Lewis Hamilton some good performances, but lack of aerodynamic efficiency across different ride heights on such a selective track created large gaps. On-track footage shows the drivers’ laps were not terrible, but simply lacked downforce and grip due to Ferrari falling behind in development. In the race, Charles Leclerc and Hamilton may recover a few positions thanks to tire management, but major miracles are unlikely.
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