In recent Grands Prix, Red Bull has reduced the gap to McLaren thanks to targeted developments that unlocked untapped potential and improved competitiveness, while the Woking-based team halted the development of the MCL39 early, making it impossible to resume. With no upgrades planned, McLaren will now rely on circuits that favor its car.
Over the last four races, a clear trend has emerged: Red Bull has closed in on the front through a combination of updates and optimized performance, finding the key to extract more from the RB21. While this doesn’t make it the fastest car on track, the previous gap to McLaren has clearly shrunk.
Previously, Woking could rely on a significant advantage over rivals, supported by a well-rounded car that was competitive across all tracks. Today, that edge has narrowed. The fight now comes down to details: teams able to optimize setup and strategy could take the lead, gaining those crucial fractions of a second that can decide a victory.
At Austin, these details manifested as a lack of data from the sprint race, limiting McLaren’s ability to manage track altitude effectively. Without solid references, the team chose a conservative approach to avoid errors that could significantly impact the result.
Why development was halted early
McLaren openly admitted that development of the MCL39 was stopped relatively early. Updates had only been introduced after extensive testing in free practice to ensure they functioned as expected, and race implementation followed once data confirmed their effectiveness.
The decision came while McLaren still held a performance and points buffer over rivals, allowing the team to prioritize the 2026 project, confident it had already secured the tools to finish the 2025 season strongly. This strategy made sense, especially since few predicted Red Bull’s resurgence would be as pronounced.
Notably, Max Verstappen bluntly remarked after Austin that anyone believing in Red Bull’s championship hopes after the Dutch GP was “an idiot.” Yet, technical and operational progress in Milton Keynes has returned a solid competitiveness to the team, now evident not only on specific circuits but on more versatile tracks as well.
McLaren has confirmed that it will try to counter Red Bull’s comeback using only the current resources, with no further upgrades scheduled. “As far as new updates or parts, this will not happen for the rest of the season,” said Andrea Stella after the Austin GP. Few weeks ago, such a rapid loss of points would have been unexpected.
Time constraints also played a role: even if the MCL39 returned to wind tunnel or CFD testing, there would be limited room for meaningful updates, at most small adjustments like rivals have made through simulation. Production capacity is also focused on the 2026 car, further restricting possibilities.
Red Bull still pushing forward
With tests scheduled for late January, some components are already in production, and resources have been allocated accordingly. Red Bull’s second half of the season plan has involved team members working on the 2025 car, while McLaren, leading less in this area, has fewer resources to develop their current machine.
The wing introduced in Marina Bay is expected to be the last major upgrade of the season, with only minor adaptations expected, as noted by Paul Monaghan and reinforced by Helmut Marko, who hinted at more updates without specifying timing. Some minor changes were even considered for Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, McLaren will target circuits favorable to the MCL39, identified by Andrea Stella as Brazil, Qatar (though Red Bull is expected to be competitive there), and possibly Abu Dhabi, thanks to its mix of characteristics and numerous long and medium-speed corners.
McLaren relies on favorable tracks
Mexico was not on Stella’s list. The track, previously thought to suit McLaren with many medium and low-speed corners favoring rotation and traction, now represents a challenge as Red Bull has improved, including front-end performance where it previously lacked. The altitude also tests temperature management, especially with the Honda power unit demanding airflow.
Verstappen has consistently outqualified McLaren in recent races. While the MCL39 benefits from excellent cooling, starting ahead in clean air is crucial at high altitude, where overtaking is difficult without a clear pace advantage, especially with rising temperatures in dirty air. Improved cooling also allows greater aerodynamic efficiency, essential with heavily loaded wings due to rarefied air limiting downforce.
Andrea Stella believes McLaren had more potential in previous races, starting with Austin. The car’s pace was sufficient to fight at the front, but events during the weekend significantly impacted the final result. Even so, overtaking Verstappen would have been extremely challenging. “We had more potential to extract from our car, and to some extent, the drivers also recognize they could have performed better in previous races,” he said.
Now, pressure is increasing. In the final races, McLaren must respond to Verstappen’s comeback, aiming to curb the hopes of a driver with nothing to lose. This battle will be technical, strategic, and decision-driven, where pit stop efficiency and attention to detail will play a decisive role.
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