The Australian Grand Prix qualifying session had one certainty: McLaren’s dominance, as they locked out the front row with a significant gap over their rivals. However, behind the Woking cars, the pecking order shifted slightly compared to Friday. Instead of Ferrari, it was Max Verstappen’s Red Bull and George Russell’s Mercedes starting from the second row.
The RB21 has been somewhat unpredictable at the start of this season, with its performance fluctuating not only from race to race but even from one day to the next. The RB20 also had similar mood swings over a weekend, depending on the team’s adjustments or track conditions.
It’s a car that is not only difficult to drive but also challenging for engineers to read. This was evident after the first day of free practice when Max Verstappen expressed pessimism about Red Bull’s chances, setting a modest goal of simply making it into the top 10 in qualifying.
In contrast, Helmut Marko was far more optimistic. Although he estimated a three-tenths deficit to McLaren over a single lap, he believed Max Verstappen could battle Ferrari for a spot on the second row. In the end, Marko’s prediction was spot on regarding both Verstappen’s grid position and the gap to the front.
It was difficult to foresee such a significant drop from Ferrari after a strong Friday, but at the same time, Red Bull has often made significant gains between Friday and Saturday in recent seasons by fine-tuning their setup using the data collected on track. That was the case again in Australia, with the team’s engineers making adjustments that even Max Verstappen found surprising.
“For us, it was a difficult start. Melbourne has never been a good track for us, so it took some time to figure out how to improve, and today we managed to do that. But I’m quite surprised to be sitting here [in the press conference] after yesterday!” Max Verstappen admitted.
“Today I had confidence; I felt in sync with the car. Of course, we still lacked some speed, but overall, I’m happy with my laps in qualifying. We tried to fine-tune the balance, and the car felt better. Yesterday it was easier to drive, but that was because it was also too slow. Today we were quicker, but clearly not enough.”
There are three key takeaways from Verstappen’s comments: his surprise at securing third place, the improvements made to the car, and the reasons behind the RB21’s step forward from Friday—not just the team’s efforts.
The latter two points are worth analyzing. After practice, Ferrari team principal Frédéric Vasseur emphasized how crucial it would be to predict how the track would evolve from Friday to Saturday. Expectations included not just a rise in temperatures but also an increase in grip as track conditions improved.
Indeed, while the biggest jump in grip occurred between FP1 and FP2, the track continued to improve on Saturday. This benefited not only teams that opted for a low-downforce setup but also those needing better performance in slow corners, such as McLaren and Red Bull. Milton Keynes’ team stuck with their Friday setup, featuring a very low-drag rear wing.
This was evident in their top speeds, which were higher than McLaren’s. While McLaren opted for a rear wing designed to minimize drag across the lap, Red Bull’s design featured a more pronounced DRS flap. This meant that while it increased resistance when closed, it provided a significant advantage when opened.
Two different approaches to rear wings, and it’s no surprise that Red Bull made the biggest gains when the DRS was activated. Comparing Max Verstappen’s lap with those of other top teams, the Dutchman gained most of his time on the straights.
However, there was a downside—Red Bull’s performance in corners wasn’t as strong as McLaren’s. On Friday, the RB21 struggled in the slow-speed sections of the third sector, often arriving with overheated tires. Additionally, Max Verstappen’s stiff setup prevented him from attacking the curbs aggressively. While this issue persisted in qualifying, it was less pronounced than in practice.
Teams that had been strong in slow corners on Friday failed to make a significant step forward in medium-to-high-speed sections on Saturday, meaning they could no longer offset the time lost elsewhere. Meanwhile, the improved grip helped teams like Red Bull and McLaren, allowing them to leverage their strengths—straight-line speed and high-speed cornering.
Telemetry data confirms that while the RB21 still struggles in corners compared to the MCL39, the gap is much smaller than Ferrari’s, which ended up with a significant deficit to the leaders. This doesn’t mean that Red Bull’s car has suddenly become easier to drive. The “Verstappen factor,” as Marko calls it, played a crucial role in managing an unpredictable car, especially in corners.
However, with such a low-downforce setup and a forecast of reduced grip due to rain, Sunday’s race could turn into a completely different challenge.
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