In 2024, Red Bull went from being the benchmark car in performance up to Miami to becoming the third, sometimes even fourth, strongest team on the grid by Abu Dhabi. Only a great Max Verstappen allowed the team, led by Christian Horner, to secure at least one title: the Drivers’ Championship.
From the summer onwards, the RB20 struggled with balance issues caused by updates that didn’t deliver what the engineers had expected. Instead of bringing benefits, they undermined the drivers’ confidence, paving the way for McLaren and Ferrari’s resurgence.
Red Bull is determined to bounce back in 2025 with the clear aim of competing to win it all once again. To achieve this, the team at Milton Keynes has worked hard to restore the correlation between simulations and the track, which was lacking last season.
Pierre Waché, Red Bull’s technical director, told Motorsport.com that the correlation process has been a focus to return to its peak years, but he also explained why all teams are, and will remain, vulnerable to potential errors when designing new cars or planning updates for the season.
“Correlation has certainly improved in the areas we know. But in F1, you’re always at risk of encountering other problems. That’s the reality, and it’s why we’re here, trying to anticipate the issues we will face. The problems we encountered in 2024 were positive for us. When you’re winning, you don’t examine the details with the same scrutiny as when you have issues on the track. When you’re no longer the fastest, you pay more attention and learn. The more you learn, the more you invest in the future.”
“But correlation problems will never be completely solved. In modern F1, perfect correlation between the virtual world and the track is impossible. When regulations stay the same for a certain period, gains become smaller, and the need for precision increases further.”
“Correlation becomes even more critical because you’re chasing small details. On the aerodynamic side, and the same applies to suspension, you’re looking for 2 or 3 points of downforce on the floor, the bodywork, and so on. This impacts the rest of the car, including areas not tested in the wind tunnel.”
“This is simply because some things cannot be tested with CFD. That’s when the situation can become potentially dangerous.”
As we saw in 2024 – including with Red Bull Racing – some updates can backfire. Instead of providing more downforce, they can create effects that disrupt the car’s balance.
“For a team, when you have correlation issues, you can no longer trust the tools at your disposal. In such situations, you have to find a way to modify your tools to regain lost correlation. The team isn’t lost during those times, but there’s always doubt about what you’re doing because you don’t know if there will be real correlation. You never know what results the tools you’re using will deliver.”
“Correlation issues arise, first of all, because the delta you’re trying to achieve is very small. Secondly, you face correlation problems because some aspects cannot be reproduced. That’s why, by definition, you work with a scaled-down model of the car in the wind tunnel. But all other teams have faced the same problems.”
In 2024, McLaren found the correlation they were looking for and, after the first third of the championship, dominated the competition, winning the Constructors’ Championship with an extraordinary comeback.
“Yes, that’s what happened last year. But I don’t know… At the start of the season, they were completely lost. The year before, they were completely lost. In 2022 as well. McLaren produced a strong car from Miami onwards. In the two and a half years prior, they weren’t that impressive.”
“I don’t know what state they’re in right now. But more importantly, I don’t know why they weren’t in such good form from the start of last season. I don’t know if it was a correlation issue or something else. I don’t know. I’m not part of McLaren, but for us, the result is that it’s really difficult to find extra performance at this stage, especially due to the tools we currently have.”
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