Oscar Piastri’s F1 title hopes slipping: even winning final three GPs and Sprint may not be enough. Oscar Piastri can no longer fully control his 2025 F1 championship destiny..

Oscar Piastri is facing a challenging end to his 2025 Formula 1 season. For the first time this year, the Australian driver no longer holds full control over his championship destiny. Even if he were to claim victories in the remaining three Grands Prix and the Qatar Sprint, it might still not be sufficient to overtake Lando Norris in the standings.

Norris holds the upper hand in title race

After his victory in Interlagos, Lando Norris addressed the press, downplaying the significance of the win and the resulting 24-point advantage over teammate Piastri. Despite Lando Norris’s caution, the numbers tell a different story. With only three races and a single Sprint remaining, the championship is mathematically within the Englishman’s grasp.

Even if Oscar Piastri were to win every remaining event, including the Sprint, he could earn a maximum of 83 points. In that scenario, Norris would only need to consistently finish second in the Grand Prix races and third in the Qatar Sprint to secure the title by a single point over Piastri.

Rosberg 2016 offers a historical parallel

The current situation for Norris echoes Nico Rosberg’s position in 2016 following his Japanese Grand Prix victory. At that time, there were no Sprint races, but Nico Rosberg held a sufficient points buffer over Lewis Hamilton with four races remaining, allowing him to finish second consistently and still claim the championship. Nine years ago, Rosberg capitalized on that advantage and ultimately celebrated his title at the Abu Dhabi finale. Norris now faces a similar challenge of maintaining composure and maximizing every opportunity.

Piastri may need Verstappen’s interference

Ironically, Oscar Piastri could rely on the intervention of the so-called ‘third wheel’ in the title fight, Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver trails Lando Norris by 49 points, with his championship hopes largely theoretical. However, if Verstappen were able to finish ahead of Norris in any of the remaining races, it could create opportunities for Piastri—provided he can also finish ahead of both rivals. Achieving such a result has proven difficult for the Australian, as it has eluded him for nearly three months.

As the 2025 season heads toward its final three races, Piastri must navigate a narrow path to keep his championship hopes alive, while Norris holds a commanding position that only requires steady podium finishes to secure his first world title.