Piastri, the numbers speak for you
With victories in China, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, Oscar Piastri has established himself as the leader of the Drivers’ Championship, overtaking Lando Norris in the standings and perhaps even in McLaren’s internal hierarchy. Apart from the spin in Melbourne, his races have been flawless, and overall, the Australian is showing cleaner driving and greater composure than his teammate.
Now that Oscar Piastri is leading the Championship (something no Australian has done since 2010), the question arises whether the 2001-born driver will have the skill to defend his lead. For now, it’s impossible to make predictions, both because he’s never been in this position and because a competitor like Max Verstappen is only 12 points behind. History might offer some insight: 2025 marks the 40th season out of 76 in which a driver has won at least three of the first five races; in 85% of those cases (33 out of 39), that driver went on to win the World Championship.
The exceptions (notable ones)
There are six cases where a driver won three races early in the season but did not go on to claim the title. And they are all world champions. The first to start strong without winning the title was Jim Clark in 1964 (he won at Zandvoort, Spa, and Brands Hatch), followed by Emerson Fittipaldi in 1973 (wins at Interlagos, Buenos Aires, and Montjuïc), Niki Lauda in 1976 (first at Interlagos, Kyalami, and Zolder), Alain Prost in 1988 (victories in Jacarepaguá, Monte Carlo, and Mexico City), and Ayrton Senna in 1989 (full score at Imola, Monte Carlo, and Mexico City).
The only case from the 1990s onward is Lewis Hamilton in 2021: after a strong start (wins in Sakhir, Portimão, and Montmeló), the seven-time world champion was caught by Max Verstappen and launched a comeback in the final phase of the season, ending in the controversial Abu Dhabi finale—a still-open wound for the Mercedes driver and an unforgettable page in Formula 1 history due to the major error by then race director Michael Masi.
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