Mercedes will arrive at the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix expecting a serious challenge from Ferrari, but championship leader Kimi Antonelli remains confident that the W17 can fight for victory at the Hungaroring. The Budapest race, the final round before Formula 1’s summer break, represents an important moment in the battle for the world title.
Kimi Antonelli heads to Hungary from a position of strength. The Mercedes driver leads the championship with a substantial advantage over Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and his team-mate George Russell, who continues to endure a difficult season and has struggled to extract the same potential from the W17 that the Italian consistently delivers on track.
Ferrari SF-26 could threaten Mercedes at the Hungarian GP
On paper, the Hungaroring does not appear to be the ideal venue for a Mercedes that has often produced its best performances on circuits with very different characteristics. The Hungarian track features numerous slow- and medium-speed corners, while power-unit performance plays a less decisive role than it does at venues dominated by long straights.
Those characteristics could bring out the strengths of the Ferrari SF-26, which has built much of its competitiveness in the more technical sections of circuits. Ferrari’s strong Belgian Grand Prix performance has reinforced the belief that the team could have a significant opportunity at the Hungarian Grand Prix, where the high-downforce layout should reduce the impact of its power-unit weaknesses.
The mood at Mercedes, however, is far from pessimistic. The team believe the W17 can play a leading role in Hungary, particularly because its chassis has already shown, in Kimi Antonelli’s hands, that it can make a difference at circuits where aerodynamic load matters more than maximum speed.
The obvious reference is the Monaco Grand Prix, where Kimi Antonelli dominated with a performance that confirmed Mercedes’ progress on street circuits and high-downforce tracks. His victory in Monte Carlo was followed by a more difficult run, making his recent return to winning form at Spa particularly significant before the championship moves to Budapest.
Kimi Antonelli expects a close four-team Hungarian GP battle
The championship leader expects an extremely balanced weekend, with Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull potentially separated by only a few tenths of a second.
“I expect all four top teams to be very close because, obviously, there are no battery problems there,” Kimi Antonelli said. “Power usage will be very balanced, so it will be another circuit where perhaps the situation will be a little more like Monaco, where you simply try to drive as fast as possible.
“It will be interesting. I think the fight between all of us will be very tight, and that is why it will be important to try to put all the pieces together.”
His comments underline that the decisive factors are likely to be the overall quality of each car and the drivers’ ability to produce the perfect lap, rather than any clear performance advantage from the power unit. Qualifying will be especially important at a circuit where overtaking has traditionally been difficult and small differences can significantly affect a driver’s starting position.
Spa comparison highlights Mercedes and Ferrari strengths
Kimi Antonelli also analysed the behaviour of the Ferrari SF-26 during the Belgian Grand Prix. He openly acknowledged Ferrari’s strengths while highlighting that Mercedes had been more competitive in other areas of the Spa-Francorchamps circuit.
“Here in Belgium, Ferrari were good in free practice as well,” Kimi Antonelli explained. “Their long run did not look bad at all, so we knew they would be competitive. In the race, we simply had confirmation that they were there, and they were very strong in Turns 12 and 13 compared with us.
“We struggled a little with the rear there, but on the other hand we were very strong in the low-speed corners. That is why it was not easy, especially to keep up in Sector 2. But we certainly expected them to be quick.”
Mercedes had focused on improving the W17’s performance on Spa’s long, high-speed sections, including through front-wing revisions aimed at straight-line efficiency. Budapest will present a very different challenge, placing much greater emphasis on slow-corner traction, aerodynamic balance and sustained performance through connected sequences of turns.
Kimi Antonelli’s assessment reflects a Mercedes team that understands both its limitations and its strengths. The configuration of the Hungaroring may favour the Ferrari SF-26, but nobody at Brackley believes the outcome has already been decided.
With Kimi Antonelli continuing to extract more from the W17 than anyone else and memories of his Monaco domination still fresh, Mercedes will enter the final race before the summer break convinced that it can challenge its Maranello rival for victory.
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