F1 | Baku analysis: where McLaren may have lost ground to Red Bull
After the victory at Monza, Max Verstappen once again proved unstoppable in Azerbaijan, sending a warning signal to McLaren. The British team, which earlier this season seemed to have gained a crucial edge over Red Bull Racing, now appears to have seen that advantage shrink. While it may still be too soon to say that the Formula 1 World Championship is completely back in play, the balance of power is shifting, and the title battle looks far from decided.
On two low-downforce tracks, Monza and Baku, Verstappen showed that he is still capable of delivering dominance when conditions favor straight-line speed and stability. At the same time, the issues that Lando Norris had raised earlier in the season about the MCL39 – describing it as a nervous, unpredictable car – are resurfacing with greater clarity. This time, even Oscar Piastri could not escape the same struggles, underlining that the weaknesses are not isolated to one driver.
Since the summer break, Verstappen has collected two victories and three podiums, scoring a total of 68 points. That tally leaves him 28 points clear of Piastri and a massive 48 ahead of Norris. While Verstappen has not openly declared a championship comeback mission, the results suggest that he and Red Bull are pushing to re-enter the title conversation. The RB21, helped by the most recent updates from Milton Keynes, seems to have regained the performance that had slipped away earlier in the year, when the Dutchman was fighting neck-and-neck with the two McLaren cars.
A change of momentum after Zandvoort
At Zandvoort, McLaren delivered a near-perfect performance, dominating on home soil in front of a passionate crowd. However, on circuits where downforce plays a much smaller role, Red Bull appears to have rediscovered its strength. The progress is so clear that even Yuki Tsunoda has been able to re-emerge in the midfield battle. The key question now circulating in the paddock is whether Red Bull’s resurgence is genuine and sustainable, or if Monza and Baku were simply outliers where track characteristics favored the RB21.
McLaren vs Red Bull: the battle for supremacy
Sky Sports F1 analyst Ted Kravitz shared insights on the situation, explaining that McLaren’s performance in Baku raised several questions. He suggested that strong winds could have disrupted the aerodynamics of the MCL39, making the car even more unstable. Another factor, according to him, might be the anti-dive suspension setup, which has been a subject of debate all season. He also recalled that Norris has long struggled with the car’s nervous handling, while Oscar Piastri had managed it better—at least until Baku.
Both McLaren drivers ended up in the wall during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, a sign that something in the setup was fundamentally wrong. Observers in the paddock believe that the team might have opted for a rear wing configuration that was too aggressive. The idea may have been to maximize qualifying performance and then control the race from the front, but this strategy left them vulnerable once they had to push through the field. Instead of supporting a comeback drive, the chosen setup amplified the car’s weaknesses.
How fast is the McLaren really?
The real mystery now is just how competitive the MCL39 actually is. Kravitz pointed out that the team themselves may not yet have a clear understanding of the car’s true potential. The frustration for McLaren lies in not knowing whether the problems are linked to specific circuit characteristics or if they reveal a deeper flaw in the car’s design philosophy. For now, what is certain is that Red Bull has managed to close the gap and even regain the upper hand in certain scenarios.
Looking ahead, the Singapore Grand Prix will not necessarily provide definitive answers. The tight and twisty street layout is very different from Monza and Baku, and performance there might not accurately reflect the broader balance of power between Red Bull and McLaren. What it will do, however, is give both teams another chance to evaluate their upgrades and strategies in a high-downforce context, potentially shaping the next phase of the championship fight.
One thing is clear: after Baku, the Formula 1 season has taken on a new dimension. Verstappen’s form, combined with Red Bull’s ability to respond with effective upgrades, has reignited the rivalry with McLaren. Whether the British team can regroup and adapt will determine if the 2025 F1 World Championship becomes a one-sided march or a truly open contest until the very end.
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